Category Archives: Ted Cruz

Just before the point of no return, Ted Cruz turns his back on #NeverTrump

Ted Cruz announced yesterday that he will, in fact, be voting for Donald Trump. In the Facebook post explaining his decision to vote for a man who treated him and his family brutally during the primaries, Cruz made the same points I’ve been making for months: First, that Hillary is infinitely worse than Trump could ever be and, second, that Trump has been carefully refining his campaign promises to assure Americans that he’ll put on the brakes before Hillary takes us over the same cliff that Obama has relentlessly edged us towards for the past eight years. Here are Cruz’s key points, although I do urge you to read the whole thing:

Six key policy differences inform my decision. First, and most important, the Supreme Court. For anyone concerned about the Bill of Rights — free speech, religious liberty, the Second Amendment — the Court hangs in the balance.


Second, Obamacare. The failed healthcare law is hurting millions of Americans. If Republicans hold Congress, leadership has committed to passing legislation repealing Obamacare. Clinton, we know beyond a shadow of doubt, would veto that legislation. Trump has said he would sign it.

Third, energy. Clinton would continue the Obama administration’s war on coal and relentless efforts to crush the oil and gas industry. Trump has said he will reduce regulations and allow the blossoming American energy renaissance to create millions of new high-paying jobs.

Fourth, immigration. Clinton would continue and even expand President Obama’s lawless executive amnesty. Trump has promised that he would revoke those illegal executive orders.

Fifth, national security. Clinton would continue the Obama administration’s willful blindness to radical Islamic terrorism. She would continue importing Middle Eastern refugees whom the FBI cannot vet to make sure they are not terrorists. Trump has promised to stop the deluge of unvetted refugees.

Sixth, Internet freedom. Clinton supports Obama’s plan to hand over control of the Internet to an international community of stakeholders, including Russia, China, and Iran. Just this week, Trump came out strongly against that plan, and in support of free speech online.

These are six vital issues where the candidates’ positions present a clear choice for the American people.

There are roughly six weeks between now and the election — and in those states that allow early voting, people are already casting their votes. We have very little time left within which people can make a choice between preserving what’s left of America or starting a Venezuela slide. At the beginning of August, I analogized our situation to that in The Bridge over the River Kwai. When a Facebook friend posted that the movie was being shown on PBS in our area, I went back, looked at the post, and decided that it’s good enough for a replay, although edited somewhat for clarity:

To read more, please go here.

The post Just before the point of no return, Ted Cruz turns his back on #NeverTrump appeared first on Watcher of Weasels.

Senator Cruz endorses Trump

Of course he did. As I have said, I will vote for Trump as well, as will many other Conservatives like Dennis Prager among others. The fact is Hillary is as unacceptable a candidate as we have ever had. No one is more diametrically opposed o our Constitution than Hillary Clinton.  I believe in principles, which is why I supported Cruz. Face it without principles, we are finished as a nation. But, at some points in life, pragmatism is the only choice left. This is such a time for me. Here is what Senator Cruz said about his decision

Via Facebook:

This election is unlike any other in our nation’s history. Like many other voters, I have struggled to determine the right course of action in this general election.In Cleveland, I urged voters, “please, don’t stay home in November. Stand, and speak, and vote your conscience, vote for candidates up and down the ticket whom you trust to defend our freedom and to be faithful to the Constitution.”

After many months of careful consideration, of prayer and searching my own conscience, I have decided that on Election Day, I will vote for the Republican nominee, Donald Trump.

A Trump Presidency will be like Formatting and Reloading America’s Hard Drive

I admit it. I am a geek. I work (among other things) as a full time IT Manager.

I was also an early supporter of Donald Trump as soon as he began to lay out his plan and vision for the nation. And while some of my friends swooned for Ted Cruz, I am still a die hard Trump supporter. And I have been hit with all of the insults, the questions, the “Trump is this or he is not that” lines over and over. I have blocked friends on Facebook and they have blocked me.

But the question I get the most is “Why?” Why do I support Donald Trump?

He isn’t Conservative, they say. He gave money to Hillary. He is anti-gun (only he isn’t).

And I have written several blog posts including Trump Doesn’t Have to be Conservative, Humble or Polite to Fix America that has been read almost 70,000 times since I wrote it a couple of months ago. And all of that is still true. Trump supporters are scolded over and over that Trump isn’t “presidential”. And one truth comes through and frustrates those who are hounding us over and over. We don’t care. (And you know the worst of the worst are the Cruz supporters.)

But it is more than “we don’t care”. It is precisely because he is nothing like the other candidates that appeals to us.

We were subjected to one of the, if not the, largest field of candidates in the history of the nation. You would think that out of all of those people – 17 in all I think – that everyone would find at least a few to their liking. For me, it came down to just two. Cruz and Trump.

And as I listened to both candidates and read gobs of stories and polls about these two, I watched my Conservative friends form a “Y” and it seems half went to Trump and half went to Cruz. And the aggressive interactions, particularly on Facebook, have been legend. In a bad way for Conservative grassroots unity. The Grand Canyon is just a ditch compared to the chasms between the Trump and the Cruz supporters.

And I have talked to a lot of Trump supporters and others that are supporting someone else – or no one at all yet. And the ones that can’t get with the Cruz camp all seem to have a gut feeling about Cruz. There is something fake that I can’t exactly put my finger on about the guy. I am both a Conservative and a Christian and mt Conservative Christian friends that support Cruz demand that I dump Trump because of his infidelities, his Democrat support, or whatever. But to me, Ted Cruz is more Jesus Freak than Conservative. And worse, I don’t get the feeling he is sincere. Same feeling I always had with the TV Evangelists like Jimmy Swaggart. I am not writing this to offend, just to explain what many of us feel.

And then there is Trump. His blustery speeches, his attack, attack, attack persona, his larger than life personality all draw people to him. People like me that are so tired of the “Presidents” that act what we now accept as “presidential”. And the “spirit of bipartisanship” that has bankrupted America. And in Washington, the two party system has essentially merged into one. I believe by design.

One would think that the far left wing Democrat Charlie Rangle would be only too happy to see the Republican Party collapse and disband leaving the Nation with only Progressive Democrats to run the nation into the ground. But Rangle said something the other day that floored me. And it confirmed everything I believe about the people running the country.

He said:

“My concern is the destruction or the imploding of the Republican Party,” he said, Breitbart reported. “They’re so torn apart and as partisan as I am, I really think the salvation of this republic is the two-party system. Democrats need another party in order for people like me to see what we think is best.”
Wow! Charlie Rangle fears America losing the two party system. You know why? The parties take turns raping an pillaging the country. And when the voters have had enough, they throw out the party in power and elect the other party. Lather. Rinse. Repeat. Over and over again.
And that’s how we get to $19 trillion in debt.
If we only had a Conservative. Which is what they said “W” was. Or in Virginia, Bob McDonnell. We have been electing Conservatives who suddenly find their Progressive mojo as soon as the election is over. The problem is, we always elect insiders. Cruz likes to call himself an outsider, but both he and his wife have been big time insiders most of their adult lives. Not so much in an elected capacity, but in the back rooms where the real deals happen.
So the past couple of days I have been working on a server to allow access behind out corporate firewall. Not to get too geeky on you here, but I have tried a couple of flavors of Linux and finally settled on Centos. Then the question was, which version. I have loaded, configured and tested about a half dozen versions and releases of Linux and pulled my hair out trying to get it working the way I want. And I’m still not there yet, but I have the platform figured out. Only I think I will have to format and reload Centos again tomorrow.
One of the things I do often is eradicate viruses and malware from my user’s machines. And I pride myself in being able to clean them without the need to reformat and reload the system from scratch. But every once in a while, it simply becomes futile trying to fix the computer when it reaches the point of no return. Adware or malware can do damage and it eventually becomes irreparable.
Isn’t that what we have done with the government, over and over? Cleaned it, took out the bad malware and tried to continue. And you never really seem to get the bad stuff out. At best, you get it limping along until it crashes again. You don’t throw out the computer. The memory, hard drive and motherboard is fine. You just need to reload the thing and start over.
And that is what we need in America. Remember when you first got your computer? Remember when Americans took pride in their country? We have reached the point that America is all gummed up with special interests, money and life long establishment bureaucrats who pretend things are humming along, but we all know better.
We don’t need to throw out the Constitution and our core values. We just need to format the drive and reload the operating system.
Now that is not going to happen with Ted Cruz and it sure as hell won’t happen with John Kasich. The only one talking about reloading America is Donald Trump.
So if you ask me why I support Trump with all his warts and moles, that’s why. We need to format and reload to fix America. Tinkering will not work at this point. We are too far gone.
Control. Alt. Delete.

Article written by: Tom White

Ted Cruz May Be Mathematically Eliminated On or Before April 26, 2016 – State by State Analysis

Bad news for supporters of Ted Cruz in the 2016 Presidential nominating contest. Cruz may be mathematically eliminated as early as April 19, 2016 and there is a nearly 100% chance he will be eliminated by April 26, 2016. And at that point, Cruz will have zero chance of being the Republican nominee. It is a matter of simple mathematics.

The magic number of delegates remaining that Donald Trump and John Kasich need to win in order to eliminate Cruz as the nominee is 211. (Kasich is already mathematically eliminated.) And keep in mind that a number of the delegates are unbound, meaning they are not required to vote for any particular candidate at the Convention. So the 211 figure includes the unbound delegates and once 211 bound delegates are won by Trump and Kasich, Cruz will be eliminated no matter how the unbound vote. And even if Cruz were to win all of the unbound delegates, which will not happen, he still cannot reach the 1,237 majority to win the nomination.

Let’s take a look at the numbers and the upcoming contests.

It takes a total of 1,237 delegates plus a majority of delegates in at least 8 states to win the nomination going in to the Republican Convention. (More on the 8 states later.)

At this point, after the March 15 Super Tuesday Part 3 where Trump won 5 of the 6 contests, the delegate count stands at 673 for Trump and 411 for Cruz. Since Kasich is already mathematically eliminated, his only role is spoiler, so we will not worry about his numbers for the scope of this article. A caveat here. Missouri has been declared for Trump and the delegate allocation has been awarded by the GOP as 37 for Trump and 15 for Cruz. However, since the totals in Missouri are within the range for a recount, and some issues seem to remain even though 100% of the precincts have reported, most news organizations are awarding Trump 25 delegates and Cruz 5 pending the final outcome. So if Missouri stands as the GOP has called it, Trump actually has 685 delegates and Cruz has 421. So we could be looking at 221 for the Cruz elimination number. But for now, we will stick with the 211 number.

There are 1,026 delegates remaining (including a number of unbound). In order to win, Trump needs 544 of the 1,026 and Cruz needs 815.

The next contests are on Tuesday March 22. They are in Arizona and Utah.

March 22, 2015


There are not a lot of polls in Arizona but the two that exist, both taken this month, show Trump with a 12 point and a 14 point lead. In the older polls going back to August, 2015 Trump has held a double digit lead in 5 of the 6 polls, with only 1 poll showing a lead for another candidate, which was Carson. Arizona is a winner take all state and the popular former Governor Jan Brewer has endorsed Donald Trump. Based on the polls, Trump should win all 58 Arizona delegates. Subtract this number from the 211 needed to eliminate Cruz and the magic number for the block is 153.


Utah is a proportional state with 40 delegates. There are 2 polls, one from January and one from February. These polls show Rubio, Cruz and Trump are all very close, within the margin of error. One poll has Rubio up 2 points and the other has Cruz up 1 point. Kasich was in the low single digits. Carson was in the mix in January and February and is gone. And Rubio was doing well in the state and is also gone. It is hard to say where the votes will go, but as this is a proportional state, we may be looking at a pretty even outcome and Cruz may have a chance of a win here. But it is proportional. Utah awards all 40 delegates if one candidate receives 50% or more. Since none of the candidates polled higher than 24%, it is not likely one candidate will take all of the delegates. The most likely scenario will have the remaining 3 candidates split the delegates. As long as Kasich receives at least 15%, we will split the votes evenly 3 ways with the winner receiving 14 and the other 2 receiving 13 delegates each. Let’s assume Cruz wins Utah and we give him the extra delegate. Which means the magic number to eliminate Cruz is 153 minus the total delegates for Trump and Kasich combined (26) which comes to 127.

Delegate Count After 3/22/2016:

Trump 744

Cruz     425

Needed to eliminate Cruz – 127


April 5, 2016


Wisconsin is the lone state holding a primary on April 5. They have a total of 42 delegates allocated by 8 congressional districts and another 18 goes to the statewide winner. Each COngressional District gets 3 delegates in a winner take all by district. Polls are about the same as Utah so we don’t have a lot of data to go on (1 in January and 1 in February). But Trump was leading in both polls by 6 and 10 points. Rubio was second and Cruz was third in both. Carson was still in and polling around 8. Again, it is hard to say where the Rubio and Carson votes go, but Kasich is not likely to win any congressional districts as of today. But we will award the 18 to Trump as the likely state wide winner and while I think Cruz may win 2 or 3 congressional districts, let’s give him 4 here. So Trump wins 30 delegates and Cruz 12.

Delegate Count After 4/5/2016:

Trump 770

Cruz     437

Needed to eliminate Cruz – 97


April 19, 2016

New York

Donald Trump’s home state. A brand new poll out today shows Donald Trump with a commanding 52 point lead. Trump is at 64% with Cruz in second at 12%. Kasich is at 1%. New York is a proportional state with 3 delegates per congressional district. The threshold to award delegates is 20%. Even if we are generous and say Cruz will come in second place with at least 20% of the vote in 5 districts, after allocating the additional 11 delegates awarded to the overall winner, Trump wins 87 delegates and Cruz 5 out of 92. Kasich wins none.

After the March 22 primary there are only 2 contests in the next month. Candidates will have 2 weeks to campaign before the Wisconsin primary and another 2 weeks before New York. I figure Trump will be talking about Cruz “New York Values” comments constantly to New Yorkers during that time.

Delegate Count After 4/19/2016:

Trump 857

Cruz     442

Needed to eliminate Cruz – 10


If I have been too generous to Cruz on some of these contests, Cruz may be eliminated at this point. If not, read on.

April 26, 2016

There are 5 contests on April 26 with a total of 172 delegates up for grabs. More or less. Pennsylvania is a strange bird this year. More on this below.


No polling this year for Connecticut but the polls last year showed Trump with a +18 point average. Trump won Massachusetts, Vermont and New Hampshire. Cruz won Maine but has placed 3rd in New Hampshire and 4th in the VT and MA. Kasich has done better in the New England states than Cruz with the exception of Maine. I see no way Cruz wins a single Congressional District here and Kasich could win 1 potentially, probably not. So we will award Trump 4 of the 5 CD’s at 3 delegates each and the 13 statewide that go to the winner. That gives Trump 25 and Kasich 3.

At this point, Cruz is mathematically eliminated from the nomination. And we still have 4 states to go on 4/26.


Delaware is a winner take all state with 16 delegates. There are no polls listed on Real Clear Politics but several polls show Trump with a sizable lead and it is unlikely anyone but Trump gets these 16 delegates.


Maryland is another winner take all by Congressional District state with 38 delegates. There are 8 CD’s and a 14 delegate bonus for the overall winner. There are only 2 polls this year. One from early January showing Trump up by 17 and one this month showing Trump ahead by 9. Trump will most likely win Maryland and I see kasich and Cruz possibly winning 2 or 3 of the 8 districts, but Trump wins the state. Delegate count Trump +28, Kasich +6, Cruz +3.

Rhode Island

Rhode Island has only 19 delegates and they are proportionally allocated. Trump is ahead by 18% in the only poll this year which shows Rubio 2nd, Kasich 3rd and Cruz 4th. Rubio is gone so it is hard to say where his voters will go, but it really doesn’t matter in this state as delegates are awarded to everyone who gets at least 10% of the vote. And I think that is a safe bet. So each candidate will receive 1 vote per CD of the 3 allocated per CD and there are 2 Congressional Districts. In addition, the extra 13 are allocated proportionally with the fractions going to the winner. So Trump will get 5 at large delegates and Cruz and Kasich will each get 3. Totals – Trump +7, Cruz +6 and Kasich 6.


If there were an award for the strangest delegate allocation process, Pennsylvania would be in contention. PA has a total of 71 delegates and 54 are allocated by congressional district, with each of the 18 CD’s receiving 3 delegates. That much is pretty common. Here is where the gallon of strange comes in. The delegates themselves are the ones running. They are undeclared not bound to any candidate. Trump is up by double digits and stands to win the 17 at large delegates bound for the first round to the statewide winner. So the big wild card will be in knowing who to vote for in each CD. And then trying to figure out how they will vote at the Convention. I think the only thing that we can say about PA is that Trump will win the 17 delegates and the other 54 are up in the air.


Delegate Count After 4/26/2016:

Trump 950

Cruz     451

Needed to eliminate Cruz – MINUS 70

So at this point, Cruz is no longer mathematically able to arrive at the 1,237 votes necessary to win the nomination and either on 4/19 or without a doubt by 4/26 will have no path to the nomination. And like Kasich, all he can do is try to block Donald Trump from winning the 1,237 delegates. So we may have 2 spoilers and one candidate when all is said and done after the April 26 dust clears.

Below, we will run through the remaining contests to see if Trump can still get to the 1,237. But first, let’s take a look at the Rule called 40b.

Rule 40B

In 2011, the establishment Romney backers wanted to ensure Ron Paul would have no possibility of winning the nomination by leveraging his delegates and doing something, but they weren’t sure what. So they decided that in order to receive votes at the Convention in 2012 you must win the majority of delegates in at least 8 states. And if you did not win a majority of delegates in at least 8 states, your name shall not appear on the ballots at the convention. So eat that Ron Paul! You can’t win no matter what you do and we just took away your leverage.

But the Republicans are not known as the Stupid Party for nothing. At this point, Donald Trump, the one they want to stop the most, already has his 8 states with a majority of delegates. This means that you take the total number of delegates awarded in a state and divide that by 2. In many states, as in Delaware above, nobody won a majority of delegates. Even though I declared Trump the winner, he didn’t reach 50% of the 19 delegates – which is 10 for those using Common Core math. Trump only gets 7. But in the states where Trump took all, this counts as one of the 8 state wins with >50% of the delegates. At this point, Trump has reached this milestone, Cruz has 4 and Kasich just 1.

But there are still 10 states to go. The problem is, 5 of them are proportional and 5 are winner take all. It will be difficult to win >50% in the proportional states, so the Winner Take All states become very key to Cruz and the odds of winning the lottery are far better than Kasich winning a majority of delegates in 7 of the 10 remaining contests (after April 26). Cruz needs only4 to qualify to be on the ballot, but that is a stretch. And we already know Cruz will not arrive at the 1,237 delegates. And there are not a lot of Cruz friendly states remaining.

So the problem for the GOPe becomes that Trump, even if he falls short of the 1,237 delegates, and assuming Cruz does not get 8 state majority wins, is th eonly name that can appear on the ballot at the Convention. No matter how many rounds the voting goes, there can be only one name on the ballot.

Unless they change the rules in the middle of the game to put someone like Romney or Ryan on the ballot. They will not have 8 state wins. And the problem becomes that the candidates who have spent a year or more running for the nomination set their strategy based on the rules. If there were not an 8 state requirement, their strategy may have been very different. Instead of spending time in some states, they would have concentrated more on others. They tried to stack the deck and now it has come back to bite them. Changing the rules this late in the game to nominate a RINO will destroy the Republican Party and we can kiss the House and Senate goodbye. Not to mention the White House. And the Country.

But let’s run out the remaining states to see what we can expect. Of course, momentum sometimes takes over and Trump may do far better than expected, like a snowball rolling down a hill. But we will ignore those dynamics.

May 3, 2016


Indiana has 57 delegates. They are allocated winner take all by CD with 9 CD’s. There are also 30 delegates that go to the winner of the statewide election. Kasich is the local boy here and did very well in Ohio. Cruz and Rubio were not even close in Ohio and I don’t think they will do a lot better in Indiana. Although there are more evangelicals in Indiana than Ohio. I think Trump will probably win the statewide race and several of the CD’s, but let’s just say Kasich picks up the win, the at large delegates and Trump and Cruz each win 3 CD’s. The Delegate count would be Kasich 39, Trump 9, Cruz 9.

Indiana is the only race on May 3.

Delegate Count After 5/3/2016:

Trump 959

Cruz     460


May 10, 2016


Nebraska is a winner take all by state (not CD). Whoever gets the most votes statewide wins the 36 delegates. There are no polls on RCP but a couple of polls that are out there show Trump ahead by 10 – 15. But given Cruz wins in the neighboring states, we will award this one to Cruz. Winner take all and Cruz gets 36.

West Virginia

West Virginia has 31 delegates up for grabs and 3 at large. WV has 3 CD’s and each will have 3 delegates running in each district with their own names and presidential preference. The three winning the most votes in each district will go to the Convention for their candidate. An additional 22 delegates go to the statewide winner and 3 at large are bound to the statewide winner. This is coal country. Kasich does not stand a chance in the Mountain state. In a February poll, Trump was up by 20. Trump wins all 34 delegates.

Delegate Count After 5/10/2016:

Trump 993

Cruz     496


May 17, 2016


Oregon has 28 delegates and they are a winner take all state. The voting is done by mail and the ballots must be in by 8PM on May 17. Postmarks do not count. There is not a lot of polling in Oregon and none of it is recent. However, from what data exists, Trump should be the winner and all 28 delegates will go to him.

Delegate Count After 5/17/2016:

Trump 1021

Cruz      496


May 24, 2016


Washington has 44 delegates and they are allocated proportionally by Congressional District with 3 per district and 14 statewide bonus delegates. Polls are, like all of the later states, sparse. But in several polls Donald Trump is leading. Trump will win Oregon but will most likely not receive 50% or more in many districts. Kasich will be shut out. Trump will win the 14 statewide delegates and 2 out of 3 in each of the 10 districts. Trump +34 delegates and Crux +10.

Delegate Count After 5/24/2016:

Trump 1055

Cruz      506


June 7, 2016

The final day for Republican primaries and it is a big one with 5 states up for grabs and a total of 303 delegates which is a quarter of the number needed to win. And Trump needs 182 of them to win the nomination outright at this point.


California has a whopping 172 delegates and the delegates are allocated proportionally by Congressional District. And there are 53 districts with 3 delegates each. Each CD is winner take all, so the candidate that receives the most votes gets all 3 delegates. Polling has Trump ahead by an average of 10.5% and most internet polls (of some use) show Trump ahead in every district. I believe Trump has a good chance of winning all 53 districts, but to stay on the conservative side, let’s give Cruz and Kasich 10 CD’s each. Trump wins 33 CD’s, the 10 State Delegates and the 3 leadership delegates. Totals: Trump  112 delegates, Cruz and Kasich 30 each.


Montana has 27 delegates and is a winner take all. Another state with almost no polling but what is out there shows Trump up by double digits. Trump will win all 27.

New Jersey

New Jersey has 51 delegates and is a winner take all state. And with a double digit lead in the polls, Chris Christie stumping for Trump and the fact Trump is a New Yorker, all 51 delegates will go to Trump.

New Mexico

New Mexico has 24 delegates proportionally allocated with a minimum of 15% to receive a share of the delegates. Cruz will probably win the state, but it will be close. Being generous, we will give Cruz 40% and Trump and Kasich 30% each. Cruz  10 delegates, Trump and Kasich 7 each.

South Dakota

South Dakota has 29 delegates and is a winner take all state. No polling at all in RCP but internet polls show Trump ahead. The same polling shows Rubio in second place and Cruz in third. I can’t see Cruz or Kasich taking South Dakota. Trump wins 29 delegates.

Delegate Count After 6/7/2016:

Trump 1281

Cruz      546


Pennsylvania Revisited

Pennsylvania has 54 delegates to allocate, but as you read above about PA, these delegates are themselves running as delegates without identifying the candidate they will vote for. But one thing is for sure. In the Western part of the state, coal mining is a big thing. Kasich may have won Ohio, but he did not win the Eastern or Southern part of the state. Eastern Ohio borders Pennsylvania and West Virginia. And Eastern PA shares a border with New Jersey. Trump was up by 17 points in a poll taken earlier this month and Rubio was second. I don’t know how many delegates will be for Trump in PA, but it is a safe bet that the majority of the 54 unknown delegates will go to Trump.


It is difficult to see a path for Ted Cruz to win the required majority of delegates in 8 states, let alone 1,237 delegates even if a few states go to Cruz that I have as Trump states. Utah may be one of those where Cruz will bring in all of the delegates and get another of the 8 required states. And if that happens, Cruz would gain 26 delegates with Trump losing half of those I have allocated. A poll that came out yesterday in Utah conducted by a guy that A) Hates Trump and B) Worked for Jeb Bush and is an obvious establishment guy showing Cruz above 50% and Trump under 15%. (Read my analysis here.) But a brand new poll out just this morning (Monday May 21, 2016) shows what I believe is a more accurate measure. Cruz 42, Trump 21, Kasich 13. I believe Kasich will hit the 15% threshold and the votes will be split as I showed above. But if Kasich fails to get the 15%, Trump and Cruz will both get more delegates.

Time will tell but it is quite obvious that Ted Cruz will not make it to 1,237 delegates by any stretch of the numbers. And I don’t see Cruz winning the required 8 states. And my count shows Trump will be over the required minimum delegates by 44 with more delegates from PA that will definitely add to his totals (and buffer any short counts in my analysis).

There will be no “brokered” convention. Trump will win it outright. With delegates to spare.

Article written by: Tom White

Polls: Trump +16 in California (172 Delegates) and +12 in Arizona (58 Delegates)

Mathematically, Ted Cruz needs 87% of the remaining delegates to reach the 1,237 needed to become the nominee.

Two new polls show some bad news for Cruz.

In California, Landslide/NSON shows Donald Trump with 38.3% of the vote and Ted Cruz with just 22.4%. And with less than 10% undecided, there will not be a lot of late deciders.

The only other poll taken in California this year showed Trump up by 5% so his lead seems to be building in this state with 172 delegates.


In a second new poll taken in Arizona by Merrill Poll, Donald Trump has a 12% lead over second place Ted Cruz. Trump has 31% to Cruz 19%. There are a high number of undecideds in this poll – 30% – so there will be a number of late deciders.

A previous poll taken a little over a week ago showed Trump with a 17% lead, but with fewer undecideds. Both Trump and Cruz were lower in this poll than the Merrill Poll. Perhaps an indication that voters are moving from decided to undecided.

All of these polls were taken prior to Trump’s dominating performance on Tuesday night winning 5 of 6 contests while Cruz won zero.

Article written by: Tom White

When Did Ted Cruz Become an Anti-Republican Anti-Establishment ‘Outsider’? March 23, 2015!

I just love hearing the stories about how Ted Cruz has always been a Washington outsider. How he has always bucked the Washington establishment – especially his own party! And when you mention how much Cruz’ fellow Senators hate him, to the Cruz followers, that is a badge of honor. And so it is with many who have grown frustrated and angry with the hapless Republican leadership, especially since the grassroots saw fit to give the GOP the House and Senate.

So anyone that bucks the “leadership” of Mitch McConnell and John Boehner and his current feckless successor Paul Ryan instantly becomes an item to all Republicans living outside the RINO pen.

And Ted Cruz has said the right things and voted against the establishment as far back as anyone remembers. Right?

Well, it depends on how far back your memory goes. If it starts on March 23, 2015, the day Ted Cruz announced his bid for President, then you would be correct. But if your memory goes back to January 21, 2013, you will have to say Cruz started out as an establishment GOP lap dog. And it was only after he decided to run for President that he suddenly embraced his current anti-Establishment positions.

Let’s go back to the beginning of 2015. Ted Cruz was just another Republican Senator that followed the party voting lines and did as he was told.

There was that time in 2013, his first year in the Senate, where he joined in on a filibuster to stop our military from killing our enemies on US soil with drones. What? Cruz would be opposed to a drone moving in on the fleeing San Bernardino terrorists and blasting them to Allah? Yep. It is hard to figure, but Cruz was trying to find his way to Senate stardom. Unfortunately, this wasn’t it. And even Rand Paul, who also spoke against drone use to kill terrorists in the US admitted it wasn’t going to do anything. Ultimately he would be shut down. And he was.

And then there was the Obamacare filibuster later in 2013. With absolutely no hope success, Cruz spoke for 21 hours and Obamacare was fully funded anyway. But at least Cruz established himself as long winded. And a sucker for lost causes. But it played well to the Conservatives.

But with only those two exceptions, Ted Cruz was an establishment lackey until he decided to run for president.

“But he votes against his own party,” you say! Well, that is true but only since announcing his presidential bid. Before that, Cruz was as establishment as it gets.

Ted Cruz Voting Recors With / Against GOP 2013-2016

So between January 2013 and March 2015 Ted Cruz voted with the GOP 84% of the time. (Source And for comparison, Lindsey Graham, who is just about as establishment as you can get only votes the party line 79% of the time. So from 2013 until he announced his bid for president, Ted Cruz voting record marks him as more of an establishment Republican than Lindsey Graham.

But Ted Cruz has undergone a metamorphosis since March 23, 2015. He has been solidly against the Establishment voting against the party line 46% of the time.

This is simply stunning and shows why Cruz is not the Conservative anti-Establishment “outsider” he is now claiming to be. Nor is he the staunch Conservative he is pretending to be, either. This graph is proof that Cruz has made a conscious effort to remold himself to fit the demographic that was untapped by the expected GOP presidential field in March 2015.

There was a decided absence of Conservatives and Evangelicals in the race, especially after Utah Senator Mike Lee announced in late January that he would not run for President. That opened the gate for a solid Conservative and someone to tap the evangelical vote. And the country had grown sick of the lack of ability of Republican establishment types to get anything done. And another Washington insider wasn’t going to stand out. But Cruz voting record was anything but “outsider” in March 2015.

But since becoming a presidential candidate, Cruz has tried very hard to reinvent himself as a Conservative. He has voted against the party 46% of the time and on July 24, 2015 he went into a rant on the Senate floor actually calling Majority Leader McConnell a liar. Yes, McConnell is a liar and Cruz was correct. But why did he wait until he was running for President to speak up? McConnell has been a liar as long as anyone can remember. He has stabbed Republicans and Conservatives in the back so many times we have lost count. He was probably worse at caving in and lying about it when he was Minority Leader.

So why July 24?

When Cruz entered the race on March 23, his “bump” in the polls saw him rise to 16%. But in mid to late June 2015 his numbers began to seriously decline. Scott Walker was drawing interest as were a couple of others at that time. Cruz went as low as 3%. So on July 24, 2015, he called McConnell a liar and his numbers rose after that to 10% by mid August before they started back down. By September 24, 2015 his numbers were down to 5% again.

And that is when he decided to filibuster Obamacare. So was the move anti Obamacare? Or pro Ted Cruz? I believe the latter. It set the Conservatives hearts into a collective pitter-patter and his numbers began to rise again back into the double digits he was longing for. Ted Cruz managed to fool a lot of people. And as other potential Conservative or conservative-ish candidates began to fizzle, and Carson and Trump were sucking the air out of the race, Cruz little attention gimmick did what he planned. It took some attention off of Trump and as Carson went into freefall, some landed on Cruz.

And now Cruz is laying claim to the “outsider” label as the guy who bucks the Washington establishment. Except that he only became that “guy” after putting his finger in the air and reinventing himself.

Cruz is not the life long anti-Establishment candidate his followers pretend he is. And want him to be. He is a a guy that is too slick by half that has maneuvered himself into contention by reinventing himself and fooling his supporters. The entire Cruz persona is a carefully manipulated facade designed to pull in voters who fall for his deception.

Cruz is willing to do anything to win. And his record and the timeline show he is not who his supporters think he is. He is a carefully crafted manipulator who is very good at the art of deception.

Follow the polls. Follow his votes. Follow the timeline. And you will see that the Ted Cruz you think you see is nothing but a mirage.

A very dangerous mirage.

Article written by: Tom White

Our Weasel Of The Week Nominees!!

It’s time once again for the Watcher’s Council’s ‘Weasel Of The Week’ nominations, where we pick our choices to compete for the award of the famed Golden Weasel to a public figure who particularly deserves to be slimed and mocked for his or her dastardly deeds during the week. Every Tuesday morning, tune in for the Weasel of the Week nominations!

Here are this weeks’ nominees….
Denver Bronco’s Quarterback Peyton Manning!!

The Razor : My nomination for this week’s weasel is Peyton Manning. The media has always presented Manning as an “awshucks good old boy,” a myth promoted by his successful father. Now it turns out that while a student at University of Tennessee Manning sexually assaulted the head of the sports training department of the university, then subsequently conspired with his father to ruin her career, eventually forcing her out of college athletics. Since being the quarterback of the super bowl victors, a game won completely by the defense and mistakes made by Cam Newton, the media’s anti-Peyton, Manning has been lauded while Newton has been pilloried for the poor performance at a post-game news conference. Yet Manning himself worse sportsmanship on the field when he lost Super Bowl XLIV against the New Orleans Saints, refusing to shake hands with winning QB Drew Brees. But getting a pass on poor sportsmanship for losing a game is one thing; sexually assaulting a woman then ruining her career afterwards is a whole new level of weasel-dom, and for that Peyton Manning gets my weasel of the week nomination. Oh, and for being such a Manning bootlick let’s throw in Papa John CEO John Schnatter while we’re at it.
BuzzFeed Editor Rachel Zarrow!!

The Noisy Room: My nomination for Weasel of the Week goes to BuzzFeed editor Rachel Zarrell this time around. She posted a couple of tweets rejoicing at the news of the death of Justice Antonin Scalia and then tried to cover it up. She then quickly deleted them. She also retweeted a GQ writer who wrote, “Boy is my Twitter feed not sad.” Her initial tweet consisted of a party popper emoji. Then she followed up with a tweet mocking the statement put out by Sen. Ted Cruz on the news of Scalia’s death.
Reince Priebus, Head of the Republican National Committee!!

JoshuaPundit : Neutrality? You kidding me? Ted Cruz and Donald Trump are both livid at the RNC’s stacking the audience at the last GOP debate with pro amnesty, representatives of the donor and consultant class whose job was to wildly cheer Marco Rubio and Jeb Bush’s every word, especially on amnesty for illegal migrants. And to boo Cruz and Trump on virtually anything they had to say.

The idea, of course, was to influence voters that ‘real Republicans’ support this year’s ‘product’ and that Trump and Cruz aren’t supported by them.Based on the post debate polls, it failed miserably but it only goes to show how desperate the GOP establishment is to stamp out the insurgents, even if it means losing the election. Trump’s veiled threat to go third party was a reminder to Priebus and his cronies that he has the means to retaliate if this sort of nonsense continues. As he said, the pledge he signed works two ways.

Supporters of either Ted Cruz or Donald Trump whom demonize either candidate should be reminded that to the GOP establishment, both of them need to be destroyed so they can foist on one their own on the electorate. The spectacle of a political party sliming both of its front runners in a presidential election year is unheard of, and a good indication that no matter who the nominee is or how the election turns out, the destiny of the Republican Party is either to go the way of the Whigs or to
kick serpents like Priebus out of the Garden.

Well, there it is. What a despicable group of Weasels…ANY OF THEM COULD WIN! Check back Thursday to see which Weasel walks off with the statuette of shame!

Make sure to tune in every Monday for the Watcher’s Forum.

And remember, every Wednesday, the Council has its weekly contest with the members nominating two posts each, one written by themselves and one written by someone from outside the group for consideration by the whole Council. The votes are cast by the Council, and the results are posted on Friday morning.

It’s a weekly magazine of some of the best stuff written in the blogosphere, and you won’t want to miss it...or any of the other fantabulous Watcher’s Council content.

And don’t forget to like us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter..’cause we’re cool like that, y’know?


Our Weasel Of The Week Nominees!!

Article written by: Tom White

Cruz Drops to 5th in New Hampshire in Brand New Emerson Poll

Ted Cruz seems to be losing steam everywhere.

In a brand new Emerson Poll in New Hampshire, Trump is still leading by a mile – a 17 point lead of the next contender at 35%, but that lead is over Jeb Bush surprisingly enough who received 18% of the responses followed by Kasich at 14% and Rubio at 9%.

The bad news for Ted Cruz is that he has fallen to 5th place with only 8%. Cruz has been on a seek and destroy mission against Donald Trump and has apparently ignored the rest of the field as they have made major gains.

Article written by: Tom White

Trump Bashing Cruz Supporters Can Dish It Out, but They Can’t Take It

While Ted Cruz has been mostly silent on criticism of Donald Trump, the same cannot be said about his supporters. There are a lot of people bashing Trump these days but none more vociferous than the Cruzers. And for the record, I am not blaming Cruz for the actions of his supporters.

And the Trump bashers seem to fall into 3 categories.

  • Ted Cruz supporters who are politically knowledgeable, conservative and, unfortunately far too willing to use spin and outright falsehoods to knock Trump down in order to build Cruz up. Many of these are people with whom I share a basic conservative political philosophy and usually find we are on the same team, supporting the same candidate. And I have no doubt that we shall align behind a candidate in the near future. So some of these attacks on my blog, Twitter and Facebook have been rather vicious and vitriolic, and most fail to mention Cruz at all. It takes some effort to draw them out and know their motive for the bashing. And I have been on the receiving end of this behavior for months. It is disappointing to see many of my friends take this tactic to build up their candidate by tearing down another with false information. It is reminiscent of the tactic Eric Cantor used to paint Dave Brat as a Liberal College Professor. And those spreading that lie refused to listen to reason and truth.
  • The RINO Establishment GOP, the Mainstream Media, RINO Blogs and Democrats. This is also a knowledgeable group who are willing to spread lies and make stuff up in a desperate effort to hold onto power. And Trump threatens this power because he will not play by their rules. And they know that. These are people who really do not care about America, just power.
  • The last category are the low information voters. Unlike the first two groups, these people are not trying to manipulate opinion, they are just reacting to what they hear and accept it without question.

And I get the appeal of Ted Cruz. If Donald Trump were not in the race, Cruz is the only other candidate I would consider supporting. Now I will vote for the Republican Candidate, whomever that may be, perhaps holding my nose again, but I wouldn’t waste my time campaigning for or working for any of the others outside of Trump or Cruz.

And one of the hardest things to do in politics is to back a different candidate than some of the allies you have found on other campaigns. It has happened to me many times over the years and I always intend to “reset” things after an election. We all find different things in different candidates and need to respect one another’s decisions when backing a candidate and make sure we don’t totally burn bridges. We will need each other in the future.

My disdain, contempt and distrust of the Establishment GOP, the big money fat cats that own the establishment politicians and the ruling class elitists is complete and eternal. These people are indistinguishable from the Socialists and Communists in the Democrat party and Ryan’s omnibus bill is absolute proof that the establishment Republicans are no more trustworthy than the Democrats. We worked hard to give these bastards a majority in the House and the Senate and, as usual, our efforts are rewarded with betrayal. And every time we have been betrayed my distrust and ire grows and the American people feel the same, judging by the rise of the outsiders in the polls. Trump, Cruz, Ben Carson, Carly Fiorina are all manifestations of the traitorous nature of the Republican Establishment’s failure to live up to their promises. It also shows that the GOPe has lost the consent of the governed.

So when it comes down to picking a presidential candidate, I would say in addition to the 4 mentioned above, I would have to add Rand Paul as a possibility. So there were 5 possible candidates for someone looking for a non establishment “outsider” to pick from. Paul has been a horrible candidate and has never picked up steam. Carson and Fiorina have had their 15 minutes and were unable to get past the scrutiny.

Which leaves Trump and Cruz.

As I looked at these two candidates, Cruz has a very short history in the Senate, not unlike our current president. He has no executive experience and as I documented in a post yesterday Cruz offered an amendment to Rubio’s Gang of 8 Bill that would not grant a path to citizenship for illegals, but would provide them “green cards” so they could “come out of the shadows”. He claimed at the time that this was a good faith effort and a compromise that gave the Democrats what they publicly stated that they wanted. And now Cruz calls it a “poison pill” that was designed to show the hypocrisy of the Democrats. So either that is a lie, or he was not being truthful in 2013 about the amendment being a good faith effort. Not a lot was said about this until Donald Trump had the courage to be open and honest about the illegal alien problem. The American public has found Trump’s Politically Incorrect statements on illegal immigration to be what they were all thinking, but afraid to say.

Cruz supported TPA, the trade authority that gives Obama the authority to bypass the Senate on what are essentially treaties. Global Warming, Gun Control, who knows what else? Cruz was for this until public sentiment turned against it.

Cruz wife is a VP at Goldman Sachs. Big money corporations are the difference between big money RINO’s and Conservatives. Very scary money connection.

And I believe Cruz will face many, many legal challenges to be placed on the ballot, as I discussed in yesterday’s post linked above.

These are not B.S. claims, they are facts. We have very little to go on with the first term Senator, but I find these issues to be a pattern. And that is why I could not support Cruz.

And then there is Donald Trump.

I tell most people to disregard most of what you hear about Trump. It is spin, half truths and outright lies. Most of my friends write on Facebook or blog comments “How can you support Donald Trump because he supports …”. Fill in the blanks. And these type of statements are always taken completely out of context, mixed with other things Trump said, culled from 20 year old interviews and spun as if Donald Trump was a politician all his life. And it has been my experience that the Cruz supporters are the most prolific Trump bashers, at least with my statements and comments.

Just a few “for instances”. There are so many lies and distortions I could fill volumes.

Trump is Pro Choice. FALSE. Trump is pro life.

Trump is a Democrat. A Democrat plant. Best friends with Hillary. FALSE. Trump is a Republican. Where the confusion and half truths come in is that Trump was a businessman doing work in the deep blue Northeast. You donate to the people in charge. You mingle with the people in charge. You go to parties with those in charge and invite them to your parties. Schmoozing is the name of the game when you are a businessman. If Trump was a Republican Politician these things would be dis-qualifiers for me. But he did what he had to do to run a very successful business.

Trump is a bully. Trump is brash. Trump is outspoken. TRUE! Trump is a New Yorker. I spent a lot of time in New York in my life and I will admit the facade a lot of people living in The City adopt can be a put off. Loud. Braggadocios. Conceited. But if you think about it, all of these things are the opposite of Political Correctness. An acquired taste for sure. But I believe we need bold and loud to be heard above the spin, lies and deception. And does it work? Damn straight it does. The press hangs on every crude and outrageous statement. And all of these crude and outrageous statements are exactly what needs to be said and exactly what people are looking for. The normal flow for whatever “outrageous” statement Trump makes is:

  • The media reports the latest outrageous statement.
  • The media and the GOP sit around and talk about how this will be the one that finally sinks Trump
  • The people love the statement and cheer Trump for saying it.
  • Trump goes up in the polls.
  • His detractors sink because they are siding with political correctness.
  • His opponents finally adopt the same idea.

How many times we gotta do this before you get it?

Trump wants to shut down the internet. FALSE. Trump wants to control the Terrorists ability to use the internet to communicate and recruit.

Trump hates Muslims and wants to round them up and kill them and their families like Hitler. FALSE. These are two statements made at different times. Trump said let’s “pause” immigration from Muslim countries until we can get a handle on this. Pretty much an intelligent thing to do. Trump also said we need to stop worrying about collateral damage with airstrikes. These people use human shields, even their own family. The terrorists need to know if they kill us and our families, we will hunt them down, those that helped them and kill them. Right now, Obama is not giving the green light – often even buzzing ISIS convoys of oil carrying vehicles so the people will get out and run. They are selling oil for ISIS to fund terrorism. Blow them to Allah. Trump never proposed rounding up and indiscriminately killing Muslims here.

Trump will send blacks back to Africa. FALSE. And yes, I even heard this. I have no idea where this came from but I suspect it is something circulating on black radio. I would NEVER support someone with such a notion.

Trump is not a Conservative. Maybe. But then Eric Cantor always said he was a Conservative. He spoke eloquently of conservative principles and values. And the need for smaller government, lower taxes, bla, bla, bla.  So did John Boehner. And Mitch McConnell. In fact, pretty much all Republicans say this. And then they do the opposite. There are few exceptions to the fact that pretty much every Republican lies about being conservative. Dave Brat is one of those exceptions. And I do not know enough about Ted Cruz in his short time in the Senate to say he is not going to be the next Paul Ryan.

And I love the people that demand to know how Trump will build a wall, bring back jobs, kill ISIS and Make America Great Again.

Funny. No one asks Trump for his specific plans and details when he says he is going to build a great golden tower that will be the envy of the world. Or a hotel. Or golf course. They don’t ask. He lays down the vision and puts the right people in charge and it happens. No one doubts him. It happens.

So why doubt him on the wall, jobs, economy, etc.?

Many people try to look at things Trump said and did as a businessman and hang it around Trump’s neck as his current political policy. Trump could have eschewed any business dealings that were not 100% conservative, refused to use eminent domain and told Bill and Hillary to go to hell. But then he wouldn’t have a successful company. Someone else would have profited from the business he gave up. And he would probably be living an obscure life in a tri-level 4 bedroom in Hoboken.

So when you say Trump is not conservative, I don’t care. Neither are the rest of the Republicans once they get to DC.

When you say Trump supports this or does not support that, I don’t care.

We have been betrayed by the Republican Party time after time. I have reached the point that I do not believe most of them and don’t trust them either. So Trump supporters like me don’t worry about the minutia and litmus tests and playing those “gotcha” games of Trump said.

If Trump builds the wall and stops illegal immigration, brings back jobs that were sent overseas by our overly intrusive government rules and regulations, actually takes the fight to ISIS and other terrorist groups and understands that war is hell, then I will know America is turning around. When we make political correctness incorrect, I will know America is turning around.

I don’t give a rat’s butt at this point about eminent domain, 20 year old health care statements, donations to Democrats, spitting on the sidewalk or anything else. We are being over run by Terrorists and Illegals who likk us and take our jobs. They flaunt our laws and spit in our faves because we are weak. America is an exploited country. So to my Conservative friends who want to know why I support Trump and could care less about the minor stuff, it is the big stuff that is killing us.

Trump has brought up more major issues than all of the rest of the candidates combines.

Trump will be anything but business as usual. So while my conservative friends focus on their conservative checklist that will be tossed in the trash bin as soon as the swearing in is over, I am perfectly fine with Trump accomplishing the major tasks that has him sop far ahead of the pack. Once the country is safe and secure and prosperous, we can turn our attention to the Conservative Checklist.

And that is why Trump supporters are unwavering. We understand that while the rest of the candidates are fighting over insignificant issues and who supported amnesty and who didn’t, and counting angels on the head of a pin or pining for George Bush and apologizing to the Muslims who are killing us, Trump has his finger on the pulse of America. Jobs. Security. Prosperity.

So don’t believe most of what you hear about Trump. Look at the big picture.

Article written by: Tom White

More People WOULDN’T Vote than WOULD Vote for These 7 GOP Candidatese

Ok. The really big news is that Trump is killing everyone else in the polls by a huge margin. Trump brings in 35.4% in the Reuters Polling rolling average.

The rest of the candidates are, frankly doing horrible.

Second place, such as it is, belongs to Ben Carson, but only at 12%. Trump nearly triples Carson.

Third place is Marco Rubio at at 10.5% followed by Ted Cruz at 9.7%.

Jeb Bush is in 5th place with 8.4% and Chris Christie follows with 4.8%.

7th Place is held by people who wouldn’t bother to vote at 4.7% which means that Fiorian (3.6%), Huckabee (2.9%), Santorum (2.4%), Paul (1.9%), Graham (1.6%), Pataki (0.7%) and Gilmore who does not even register at 0%.

Article written by: Tom White