This post is not intended to rain on anyone’s parade, but I am getting concerned that we’re looking at the wrong voter enthusiasm metrics.
When I go to Real Clear Politics’s polling page with information for October 12, this is what comes up for the General Election polling:
As you can see, the polls show Biden running away with the election. For Trump supporters, these numbers are mystifying. First, they look remarkably like the numbers for 2016, when Hillary was beating the pants off of Trump in the lead-up to the election.
Second, we’re pretty sure that the Democrats have been so violent in their opposition to Trump that people are hiding information from the pollsters. After all, you don’t know if that nasal, mumbling person taking the poll is a BLM or Antifa supporter who is creating a database of people to harass. We know that’s what the BLM/Antifa types do. We saw it this August in Minneapolis when a person running for elected officeterrorized a police chief’s family at their home:
Video shows incoming Minnesota State House Rep. John Thompson, a Democrat, leading the mob, hurling epithets and obscenities at frightened children standing outside Kroll’s home. The mob also took swings at pinatas that depicted Kroll and his wife.
“I’m a black man being terrorized by the f****** klansman right here,” Representative-elect Thompson shouted. “We are terrorized by the grand wizard. Ya’ll got the grand wizard living in your god**** neighborhood. All the klan exist in Hugo, Minnesota and it’s right here. Don’t run now. Don’t run now, racist white people. I’m here. Oh yeah, we pull up. We pull the f*** up.”
A radical lawyer and civil rights activist is under fire after threatening Kansas City police and their families in an speech addressing alleged police brutality last week. “You don’t think that we know where y’all live? You don’t think we don’t know where your children go to school?!” the attorney fumed in angry rant that was captured on video.
Stacy Shaw is the attorney for a pregnant black woman who was arrested at a KC gas station late last month. For the past 10 days, Shaw has been leading an “occupation” of City Hall in Kansas City, Missouri to protest the arrest.
“We are not being kind with you anymore,” said Shaw. “We have been courteous. We have been respectful, but we aren’t doing that anymore,” she warned.
Shaw said she is seeking to have the licenses of the peace officers involved in the arrest revoked, and then threatened to use her allies in the education system to turn their children against them.
“We are going to start showing things with your children’s teachers,” the attorney said. “You don’t think that we have extensive researchers? You don’t think that we know where y’all live? You don’t think we don’t know where your children go to school?!” she bellowed through a bullhorn. “Who the f—ck do you think we are?!”
These people are scary and the less they know about us the better. Not only might they be making the phone calls but even a legitimate polling outfit poses a risk. Even if the person on the other end of the phone isn’t an Antifa/BLM monster, the polling companies probably have eminently hackable databases.
Third, we point to voter enthusiasm, which is over the top for Trump. Even with the Wuhan virus, people are still turning up by the thousands for Trump rallies:
Wow. This was the line to get into the Trump Rally in Minden, Nevada today.
Then there was the amazing Miami car rally this past weekend, with 20,000-30,000 cars showing up. I believe that this consists only of a subclass of Trump supporters; namely, anti-communist Latin Americans:
Just ran into the Biden Car parade in Miami. All 15 of them
So pathetic that they try to imitate everything Trump or his supporters do except it’s a bootleg and ghetto pic.twitter.com/xKDVIrVQm1
It occurred to me, though, that we’re looking at this wrong. The polls shouldn’t be comparing Trump to Biden, or even Trump enthusiasm to Biden enthusiasm. It’s clear that the energy on the left isn’t for Biden. Instead, the energy is against Trump and America. Joe is just the decomposing surrogate for a Democrat party that intends to un-do the great American spirit.
Thus, perhaps when pollsters are asking, “Do you support Trump or Biden?” what the people responding are hearing is “Do you support the Trump or do you support the despising Trump and destroying America?” Unfortunately, there’s a lot of enthusiasm for that second choice:
If that’s the real poll — Trump rallies v. BLM/Antifa rallies — we have to fight harder than ever. We absolutely cannot look at the “Trump v. Biden” metrics and think “Those polls are wrong. The real energy is behind Trump. Of course we’ll win.” Instead, we have to look at where leftist enthusiasm really lies. Then, we vote as if our lives depend on it (because they do) and we hope that the people who like getting on the streets are too disorganized or too anti-social to make it to the voting booth. The fact that they’re young militates against a big voter turnout. The fact that they’re unprincipled carries the threat that they won’t be too impressed with the rules against cheating.
The polls show that the public hates the “mostly peaceful” riots, so CNN published a deeply dishonest “article” blaming Trump for the riots.
On May 25, George Floyd, an overweight, violent ex-felon with serious heart disease, who took over three times the lethal dose of fentanyl, along with some other drugs, managed to die on camera while under police control. Floyd was turned into a saint, complete with halo. The Black Lives Matter had found its next martyr and, despite the lockdown, leftists took to the street.
Some of the protests were indeed marches, with only a few peculiarities:
First, the same Democrat media members and politicians who had insisted (and, indeed, continue to insist) that Americans had to remain under house arrest because of a virus, said that mass protests were perfectly okay.
Second, very few of the protesters were actually black. The majority were extremely woke whites, especially angry, neurotic white women.
Third, although the protesters had as one of their core tenets a demand that police should be defunded across America, whenever something went wrong, they wanted the police.
Fourth, all the protests happened in Democrat-run cities that were almost (although not quite) always located in Democrat-run states.
Fifth, when the protests turned violent, the Democrat politicians in charge refused to criticize the protests, saying instead that they were peaceful, and also refused to imprison the protesters, churning them through the system and spitting them out within 24 hours of any arrests.
Perhaps unsurprisingly, all over America, the protests quickly turned violent. Minneapolis lost more than 1,500 buildings, with most of the damage being done to black-owned businesses. Those stores that stood were looted of everything, including the stuff that was nailed down. From there, the mobs spread. From Chicago to Los Angeles to Charleston and everywhere in between, mobs took to the streets, tearing down statues, defacing buildings with ugly graffiti, burning buildings, and looting stores.
In Washington, D.C., the mob tried to break into the White House and also set a historic church on fire. In Seattle, the mob took over six square blogs and created a deadly and destructive autonomous zone. And in Portland, the mob spent weeks attacking a federal courthouse. They tried repeatedly to set it on fire, tried to blind the federal agents who protected the courthouse and attacked the courthouse and the agents with firecrackers, rockets, rocks, bottles filled with ice, and whatever else would cause maximum damage. When federal agents clearly identified as such arrested people, the mob, the media, and the local government screamed that these were Stasi tactics.
Portland’s Mayor Wheeler and Oregon’s Governor Brown, both Democrats, insisted that, if that the problem wasn’t the protesters, who often self-identified as Antifa or BLM, but the presence of federal agents. Merely by being, apparently, the agents sent Portland’s leftist protesters into an uncontrollable rage that could only be slaked through violence. After sixty days, the feds withdrew.
Had Wheeler and Brown been correct, with the federal withdrawal, peace should have returned. It didn’t. Instead, the mob became only more violent, only now it turned its nihilistic wrath on the Portland police, going so far as trying to burn the police alive in a building.
Despite the bloodshed, the death, and the destruction, right up until last week, Democrats and other leftists insisted that what conservatives call “riots” were, in fact, “peaceful protests.” Here are a handful of videos making that point.
Here’s what Biden said in July:
And here’s the clever campaign video showing the lie:
Tennessee Democrat, John DeBerry Jr. castigated his own party for the pretense that the protests are peaceful:
During their convention, the Democrats did not once mention the violence on the streets, nor did the words BLM or Antifa pass anyone’s lips
What changed all this was the polling after the leftists tried to burn little Kenosha, WI, to the ground. They did this because police were called to arrest wanted rapist who fought with them, had a knife, didn’t respond to tasering, and then tried to reach into his car for a weapon. Now, BLM and leftist all over America (especially basketball player) are celebrating a violent man who repeatedly raped a woman. That’s the heart of the left. In 2017, it’s #MeToo and Believe All Women. In 2020, it’s “hey, this rapist is a martyr. Let’s burn up a city in his honor.”
Here’s how Kenosha people really feel about Trump:
We don’t have to guess about the post-Kenosha polling. Don Lemon stated the truth in a rare moment of unfiltered honesty:
With lock-stepped, statist precision, the Democrats in the media and in political positions turned on a dime. Suddenly, Biden was no longer talking about peaceful protest. Instead, in one of the most dishonest speeches in American political history, he accused Trump and an imaginary horde of right-wing militias of causing the violence in America. As was the case at the convention, the words Antifa and BLM never passed his lips.
CNN, which was at the forefront of the “peaceful protest” meme, has now published a hysterical screed that is, if possible, even more dishonest than Biden’s speech. Let’s start with the title: “Trump’s depraved plan to try to win reelection.”
Over the years of blogging, I have read many media articles that played with the truth or presented an alternative view of facts. In my entire life, though, I have never seen anything like this. The author, Frida Ghitis, a former producer and correspondent for CNN who also writes for the Washington Post, is delusional. Or if she’s not delusional, she’s evil, for only an evil person could lie with such fervor and aplomb.
The remainder of this post fisks her article. There’s a lot of dishonest filler, which I’ll ignore. I’m just going to go for her purported “facts,” each and every one of which is a lie or something that mutilates a small core of truth:
That Trump wants chaos and mayhem is not a secret. It has been confirmed repeatedly by his team. In one of her last Fox News appearances, his now-former strategist Kellyanne Conway confirmed what we all knew: “The more chaos, anarchy and vandalism reigns, the better it is for the very clear choice on who’s best on public safety and law and order,” she said. Lara Trump, daughter-in-law and campaign adviser, later told Fox that the violence is bringing voters to Trump.
Breitbart debunked this. I’ll just summarize. Pete Buttigieg was one of the first to blame Trump for the violence. When Conway appeared on Fox and Friends, someone asked her about this claim. Conway referred to this video, where the speaker is obviously a Democrat furious that the mob’s violence will undoubtedly push people into Trump’s camp:
Windows of businesses and residential buildings being smashed on University Avenue — which were not preemptively boarded up. This Papa John’s employee asks protesters, “Do you want Trump to be elected?” pic.twitter.com/IbSubGfGs6
When Conway spoke the quoted words, she was echoing what that business owner said, which is that sane people understand that the Democrats are in the grip of a violent impulse and that they will pull back in revulsion and vote for Trump. That’s what the polls showed and that’s why Lemon told people to chill. Lara Trump made exactly the same point.
In other words, Ghitis withheld information from her readers in order to tell a bald-faced lie.
“You know me,” Biden said, “Do I look like a radical socialist with a soft spot for rioters?” vowing he will work for “safe America, safe from Covid, safe from crime and looting, safe from racially motivated violence.”
It’s Biden’s opinion that Trump is toxic. An equally valid — hey, way more valid — view is that the left is making the narcissist’s argument: I can instigate anything I want, whether it’s violence, censorship, tribalism, etc. If you take it, all is good; if you push back against my illegal or immoral efforts, you are the violent, toxic person.
As for Biden, he’s a moron, an opportunist, and a corrupt politician. He’s also senile and desperate to win, making him a sock puppet for the radical leftists who now control the Democrat party.
The response was needed because Trump is trying to blame the Democrats as he stokes chaos.
The chaos is already here. What is Trump supposed to be stoking? It was the Democrats who encouraged their shock troops for three solid months.
Ghitis lacks even the minimal honesty necessary to acknowledge that Kyle Rittenhouse has a superb self-defense claim. Even the New York Times was honest enough to put together a timeline based on videos that showed that Rittenhouse was attacked when he tried to put out a dumpster fire, that he fired his first shots only in self-defense, that he was then again attacked with an intention to kill, and again shot only in self-defense. Rittenhouse’s weapon control was superb because he hit only those who were trying to kill him
As for Governor Evers who let this madness happen, he is pleading with Trump to stay away because (a) he’s afraid people will be happy to see Trump and (b) it looks awful for Trump to be shown against the backdrop of an essentially war-ravaged American city, while Biden cowers in his basement.
The visit and idea that Trump is better for public safety is all a sham, of course, for many reasons. First, Trump is not better on law and order. Consider how many of his associates have been indicted and convicted. When it comes to street violence, this is occurring on his watch. The President who vowed “American carnage” was stopping with his inauguration, has ushered in and stoked violence and divisions.
This is Trump’s America. He owns the violence.
The first sentences make up a nonsensical non sequitur. Even assuming solely for the sake of argument that the Democrats’ unrelenting attacks against Trump, in the leftist New York court system, in the leftist federal court system, or in the House, had any validity, that is a different animal from whether a president is pushing for law and order on American streets. Unlike Obama who ignored whatever federal laws he didn’t like, one of the things Americans value in Trump is that he believes in the law as written and believes in applying it equally to all citizens. The left cannot point to a single law that Trump, in his role as America’s chief executive, has violated.
But for too many of our citizens, a different reality exists: Mothers and children trapped in poverty in our inner cities; rusted-out factories scattered like tombstones across the landscape of our nation; an education system, flush with cash, but which leaves our young and beautiful students deprived of knowledge; and the crime and gangs and drugs that have stolen too many lives and robbed our country of so much unrealized potential.
This American carnage stops right here and stops right now.
We are one nation – and their pain is our pain. Their dreams are our dreams; and their success will be our success. We share one heart, one home, and one glorious destiny.
The oath of office I take today is an oath of allegiance to all Americans.
Again, Ghitis lied spectacularly by writing statements that lacked the proper context. Here’s Ghitis again:
Still, he wants Americans to blame Democratic governors and mayors — and fear that Biden will make it worse. But it is Trump and his supporters who bear much of the responsibility for turning mostly peaceful anti-racism protests into battlegrounds. And the strife is not just continuing, it is intensifying; becoming bloodier, deadlier and riskier for the nation.
Democrat protesters in Democrat-run cities, with Democrat mayors and prosecutors who refuse to arrest or even stop them, in Democrat states, with Democrat governors who have refused to augment their resources with federal help. But it’s all Trump’s fault. Only a madwoman or an evil one could write this and believe it.
Desperate to win reelection amid the worst economic collapse since the Great Depression and the worst public health catastrophe in a hundred years, Trump is playing with fire. How far he will go is anyone’s guess. Some fear America could unravel into civil war. But that’s something no one — save the most extreme of the extremists — wants to see.
The leftists cannot point to a single time in the first five months of the COVID craziness that Trump did not follow Fauci’s advice, no matter how awful that advice was. The Democrats pushed the lockdown as hard as they could. One has to believe that they were motivated by more than blind fear. At a certain point, they must have realized that the lockdown would trash the economy, which was Trump’s strongest card going into the election. Having trashed the economy, they then blamed Trump for its collapse.
As for the “public health catastrophe,” we know a few things: Lockdown or not, most states and nations have exactly the same virus curve. Like an earthquake, it hits hard, and then has aftershocks, going up and down until the disease is integrated into a society like all other coronaviruses.
The real carnage was from those states that forced sick people into nursing homes, turning them into abbatoirs. The elderly are less than 4% of the population, but the Democrat governors turned them into around 40% of the deaths. (I’m not looking at statistics now. I’m going by memory for these numbers, but I think I’m close.)
Whether or not they support Biden, it’s hard to believe many Americans disagree with Biden’s plea, “We must not become a country at war with ourselves; a country that accepts the killing of fellow Americans who do not agree with you.”
Biden’s words are too little too late. They come, not from a commitment to America’s well-being, but because of poll testing. They’re good words but from an unreliable source.
Most Americans are horrified by the violence. I have no polls to prove that. But I know most, including most Trump supporters, don’t want deadly clashes between Americans who have different political opinions. Most Americans, Democrats or Republicans, don’t want to see looting, arson or vandalism, and certainly not killings.
Really? Most Americans? Not Chris Cuomo:
Leftists reveled in the violence when they thought it would hurt Trump. They backed off from that reveling only when polls showed otherwise.
Remember the arson and destruction in Minneapolis after police killed George Floyd? A video went viral showing a black-clad man with an umbrella in one hand and a hammer in another, smashing windows.
Minneapolis police said he was suspected of white supremacist ties and was trying to incite rioting. He succeeded. “Until the actions of…’Umbrella Man,'” police said, “the protests had been relatively peaceful.”
Did you know that no one has ever found “umbrella man”? The above is all speculation. But even assuming, once again solely for the sake of argument, that umbrella man started it, all over America, Antifa and BLM have been finishing it.
In the chaos, Trump found a possible path to reelection. He sent federal forces to Portland, where their presence inflamed the protests. The mayor implored Trump to remove them. When he finally did, Portland turned much quieter until this past weekend.
No, it didn’t turn much quieter. Three weeks ago, long after the federal agents left, rioters set a police station on fire. Last week (that is, before this past weekend), they used rebar and quick-dry cement to try to burn police alive in a station. Those are just two examples of dozens or even hundreds. If Ghitis had access to actual news, rather than CNN, she would have known that the mob accelerated their activities.
But by then, Trump’s game plan was already underway. The White House wanted to amplify and publicize the strife as much as possible, according to officials. “It was about getting viral online content,” an administration official admitted to the Washington Post.
Yeah, Trump was no fool. He couldn’t go into states with the governors’ say-so, so he sat back and watched, and America watched with him, as leftist cities self-immolated.
Interestingly, unlike the Antifa and BLM rioters, while these “ultra-extremist” Boogaloo members may have shown up, they didn’t attack anyone, burn anything, loot any place, or kill anybody. Go figure….
Most anti-racism protests and protesters are peaceful. Not all are. Trump backers, with fervid encouragement from the White House, from Fox News and from prominent voices in the far right, are doing everything in their power to paint protesters as the enemy. Even the Republican convention gave a prominent spot to armed civilians made famous by waving their weapons at protesters.
Those armed civilians were the McCloskeys who used their legal weapons (one of which couldn’t even fire) to warn off hundreds of people who broke down a fence to get to the McCloskeys’ property and, as they walked by, threatened the McCloskeys with rape and murder. Thankfully, we have a Second Amendment, because the “defund police” mentality and the sheer volume of violent protests, meant the McCloskeys were on their own.
Last week, when a 17-year-old allegedly killed two protesters in Kenosha, the far-right propaganda machine rushed to support the accused. Tucker Carlson seemed to justify him on his show saying, “How shocked are we that 17-year-olds with rifles decided they had to maintain order when no one else would?”
Trump was wise. He learned what happens when presidents give their opinions about cases. When Charles Manson was being tried for the Helter Skelter murders, Nixon opined that he was guilty. Manson’s defense lawyer promptly moved for a mistrial on the ground that it was now impossible to find an impartial jury. Trump knows better than to be accused of tainting a case.
On CNN, Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wisconsin) also refused to outright condemn the killing. “It’s a tragedy,” he told Dana Bash. She insisted, “It is a tragedy, but do you condemn it?” A morally bereft Johnson squirmed, repeating that the situation was a “tragedy” before saying that he “condemn[s] it all.” Maybe he was scared of being insulted by Trump.
Ron Johnson learned the same message. Both Trump and Johnson also know that the mainstream media always gets the story wrong in the first instance. It’s better to keep quiet while facts develop than to say something that has to be or, worse, can’t be walked back.
When a caravan of armed Trump supporters headed to Portland this weekend, undoubtedly emboldened by praise for the Kenosha murder suspect, more death was in the cards.
Here’s that narcissism again. We can do it and it’s not violent, no matter the death or destruction in our wake. But if you stand up to us, you have magically created violence and it’s all your fault.
In the clashes, one apparent member of the pro-Trump group was killed. Police and witnesses haven’t said what exactly happened.
Witnesses are talking. As of now, the available evidence shows that BLM hunted Danielson down and that one of their members, with a BLM tattoo on his neck who’d already been arrested and released for having an illegal weapon, shot him in cold blood. Afterward, they partied.
Unethical campaign strategies are nothing new. But this is certainly one of the most depraved, most dangerous electoral strategies in memory. This is not what most Americans want. It’s not what most Republicans or Democrats want. It’s what Trump, running out of arguments for reelection, has deliberately created.
CNN is trying to start a civil war. This article is grounds for charges of sedition. Ghitis is lucky that there’s a Constitution that protects her right to be stupid, evil, hate-filled, and anti-American.
Bad news for supporters of Ted Cruz in the 2016 Presidential nominating contest. Cruz may be mathematically eliminated as early as April 19, 2016 and there is a nearly 100% chance he will be eliminated by April 26, 2016. And at that point, Cruz will have zero chance of being the Republican nominee. It is a matter of simple mathematics.
The magic number of delegates remaining that Donald Trump and John Kasich need to win in order to eliminate Cruz as the nominee is 211. (Kasich is already mathematically eliminated.) And keep in mind that a number of the delegates are unbound, meaning they are not required to vote for any particular candidate at the Convention. So the 211 figure includes the unbound delegates and once 211 bound delegates are won by Trump and Kasich, Cruz will be eliminated no matter how the unbound vote. And even if Cruz were to win all of the unbound delegates, which will not happen, he still cannot reach the 1,237 majority to win the nomination.
Let’s take a look at the numbers and the upcoming contests.
It takes a total of 1,237 delegates plus a majority of delegates in at least 8 states to win the nomination going in to the Republican Convention. (More on the 8 states later.)
At this point, after the March 15 Super Tuesday Part 3 where Trump won 5 of the 6 contests, the delegate count stands at 673 for Trump and 411 for Cruz. Since Kasich is already mathematically eliminated, his only role is spoiler, so we will not worry about his numbers for the scope of this article. A caveat here. Missouri has been declared for Trump and the delegate allocation has been awarded by the GOP as 37 for Trump and 15 for Cruz. However, since the totals in Missouri are within the range for a recount, and some issues seem to remain even though 100% of the precincts have reported, most news organizations are awarding Trump 25 delegates and Cruz 5 pending the final outcome. So if Missouri stands as the GOP has called it, Trump actually has 685 delegates and Cruz has 421. So we could be looking at 221 for the Cruz elimination number. But for now, we will stick with the 211 number.
There are 1,026 delegates remaining (including a number of unbound). In order to win, Trump needs 544 of the 1,026 and Cruz needs 815.
The next contests are on Tuesday March 22. They are in Arizona and Utah.
March 22, 2015
There are not a lot of polls in Arizona but the two that exist, both taken this month, show Trump with a 12 point and a 14 point lead. In the older polls going back to August, 2015 Trump has held a double digit lead in 5 of the 6 polls, with only 1 poll showing a lead for another candidate, which was Carson. Arizona is a winner take all state and the popular former Governor Jan Brewer has endorsed Donald Trump. Based on the polls, Trump should win all 58 Arizona delegates. Subtract this number from the 211 needed to eliminate Cruz and the magic number for the block is 153.
Utah is a proportional state with 40 delegates. There are 2 polls, one from January and one from February. These polls show Rubio, Cruz and Trump are all very close, within the margin of error. One poll has Rubio up 2 points and the other has Cruz up 1 point. Kasich was in the low single digits. Carson was in the mix in January and February and is gone. And Rubio was doing well in the state and is also gone. It is hard to say where the votes will go, but as this is a proportional state, we may be looking at a pretty even outcome and Cruz may have a chance of a win here. But it is proportional. Utah awards all 40 delegates if one candidate receives 50% or more. Since none of the candidates polled higher than 24%, it is not likely one candidate will take all of the delegates. The most likely scenario will have the remaining 3 candidates split the delegates. As long as Kasich receives at least 15%, we will split the votes evenly 3 ways with the winner receiving 14 and the other 2 receiving 13 delegates each. Let’s assume Cruz wins Utah and we give him the extra delegate. Which means the magic number to eliminate Cruz is 153 minus the total delegates for Trump and Kasich combined (26) which comes to 127.
Delegate Count After 3/22/2016:
Needed to eliminate Cruz – 127
April 5, 2016
Wisconsin is the lone state holding a primary on April 5. They have a total of 42 delegates allocated by 8 congressional districts and another 18 goes to the statewide winner. Each COngressional District gets 3 delegates in a winner take all by district. Polls are about the same as Utah so we don’t have a lot of data to go on (1 in January and 1 in February). But Trump was leading in both polls by 6 and 10 points. Rubio was second and Cruz was third in both. Carson was still in and polling around 8. Again, it is hard to say where the Rubio and Carson votes go, but Kasich is not likely to win any congressional districts as of today. But we will award the 18 to Trump as the likely state wide winner and while I think Cruz may win 2 or 3 congressional districts, let’s give him 4 here. So Trump wins 30 delegates and Cruz 12.
Delegate Count After 4/5/2016:
Needed to eliminate Cruz – 97
April 19, 2016
Donald Trump’s home state. A brand new poll out today shows Donald Trump with a commanding 52 point lead. Trump is at 64% with Cruz in second at 12%. Kasich is at 1%. New York is a proportional state with 3 delegates per congressional district. The threshold to award delegates is 20%. Even if we are generous and say Cruz will come in second place with at least 20% of the vote in 5 districts, after allocating the additional 11 delegates awarded to the overall winner, Trump wins 87 delegates and Cruz 5 out of 92. Kasich wins none.
After the March 22 primary there are only 2 contests in the next month. Candidates will have 2 weeks to campaign before the Wisconsin primary and another 2 weeks before New York. I figure Trump will be talking about Cruz “New York Values” comments constantly to New Yorkers during that time.
Delegate Count After 4/19/2016:
Needed to eliminate Cruz – 10
If I have been too generous to Cruz on some of these contests, Cruz may be eliminated at this point. If not, read on.
April 26, 2016
There are 5 contests on April 26 with a total of 172 delegates up for grabs. More or less. Pennsylvania is a strange bird this year. More on this below.
No polling this year for Connecticut but the polls last year showed Trump with a +18 point average. Trump won Massachusetts, Vermont and New Hampshire. Cruz won Maine but has placed 3rd in New Hampshire and 4th in the VT and MA. Kasich has done better in the New England states than Cruz with the exception of Maine. I see no way Cruz wins a single Congressional District here and Kasich could win 1 potentially, probably not. So we will award Trump 4 of the 5 CD’s at 3 delegates each and the 13 statewide that go to the winner. That gives Trump 25 and Kasich 3.
At this point, Cruz is mathematically eliminated from the nomination. And we still have 4 states to go on 4/26.
Delaware is a winner take all state with 16 delegates. There are no polls listed on Real Clear Politics but several polls show Trump with a sizable lead and it is unlikely anyone but Trump gets these 16 delegates.
Maryland is another winner take all by Congressional District state with 38 delegates. There are 8 CD’s and a 14 delegate bonus for the overall winner. There are only 2 polls this year. One from early January showing Trump up by 17 and one this month showing Trump ahead by 9. Trump will most likely win Maryland and I see kasich and Cruz possibly winning 2 or 3 of the 8 districts, but Trump wins the state. Delegate count Trump +28, Kasich +6, Cruz +3.
Rhode Island has only 19 delegates and they are proportionally allocated. Trump is ahead by 18% in the only poll this year which shows Rubio 2nd, Kasich 3rd and Cruz 4th. Rubio is gone so it is hard to say where his voters will go, but it really doesn’t matter in this state as delegates are awarded to everyone who gets at least 10% of the vote. And I think that is a safe bet. So each candidate will receive 1 vote per CD of the 3 allocated per CD and there are 2 Congressional Districts. In addition, the extra 13 are allocated proportionally with the fractions going to the winner. So Trump will get 5 at large delegates and Cruz and Kasich will each get 3. Totals – Trump +7, Cruz +6 and Kasich 6.
If there were an award for the strangest delegate allocation process, Pennsylvania would be in contention. PA has a total of 71 delegates and 54 are allocated by congressional district, with each of the 18 CD’s receiving 3 delegates. That much is pretty common. Here is where the gallon of strange comes in. The delegates themselves are the ones running. They are undeclared not bound to any candidate. Trump is up by double digits and stands to win the 17 at large delegates bound for the first round to the statewide winner. So the big wild card will be in knowing who to vote for in each CD. And then trying to figure out how they will vote at the Convention. I think the only thing that we can say about PA is that Trump will win the 17 delegates and the other 54 are up in the air.
Delegate Count After 4/26/2016:
Needed to eliminate Cruz – MINUS 70
So at this point, Cruz is no longer mathematically able to arrive at the 1,237 votes necessary to win the nomination and either on 4/19 or without a doubt by 4/26 will have no path to the nomination. And like Kasich, all he can do is try to block Donald Trump from winning the 1,237 delegates. So we may have 2 spoilers and one candidate when all is said and done after the April 26 dust clears.
Below, we will run through the remaining contests to see if Trump can still get to the 1,237. But first, let’s take a look at the Rule called 40b.
In 2011, the establishment Romney backers wanted to ensure Ron Paul would have no possibility of winning the nomination by leveraging his delegates and doing something, but they weren’t sure what. So they decided that in order to receive votes at the Convention in 2012 you must win the majority of delegates in at least 8 states. And if you did not win a majority of delegates in at least 8 states, your name shall not appear on the ballots at the convention. So eat that Ron Paul! You can’t win no matter what you do and we just took away your leverage.
But the Republicans are not known as the Stupid Party for nothing. At this point, Donald Trump, the one they want to stop the most, already has his 8 states with a majority of delegates. This means that you take the total number of delegates awarded in a state and divide that by 2. In many states, as in Delaware above, nobody won a majority of delegates. Even though I declared Trump the winner, he didn’t reach 50% of the 19 delegates – which is 10 for those using Common Core math. Trump only gets 7. But in the states where Trump took all, this counts as one of the 8 state wins with >50% of the delegates. At this point, Trump has reached this milestone, Cruz has 4 and Kasich just 1.
But there are still 10 states to go. The problem is, 5 of them are proportional and 5 are winner take all. It will be difficult to win >50% in the proportional states, so the Winner Take All states become very key to Cruz and the odds of winning the lottery are far better than Kasich winning a majority of delegates in 7 of the 10 remaining contests (after April 26). Cruz needs only4 to qualify to be on the ballot, but that is a stretch. And we already know Cruz will not arrive at the 1,237 delegates. And there are not a lot of Cruz friendly states remaining.
So the problem for the GOPe becomes that Trump, even if he falls short of the 1,237 delegates, and assuming Cruz does not get 8 state majority wins, is th eonly name that can appear on the ballot at the Convention. No matter how many rounds the voting goes, there can be only one name on the ballot.
Unless they change the rules in the middle of the game to put someone like Romney or Ryan on the ballot. They will not have 8 state wins. And the problem becomes that the candidates who have spent a year or more running for the nomination set their strategy based on the rules. If there were not an 8 state requirement, their strategy may have been very different. Instead of spending time in some states, they would have concentrated more on others. They tried to stack the deck and now it has come back to bite them. Changing the rules this late in the game to nominate a RINO will destroy the Republican Party and we can kiss the House and Senate goodbye. Not to mention the White House. And the Country.
But let’s run out the remaining states to see what we can expect. Of course, momentum sometimes takes over and Trump may do far better than expected, like a snowball rolling down a hill. But we will ignore those dynamics.
May 3, 2016
Indiana has 57 delegates. They are allocated winner take all by CD with 9 CD’s. There are also 30 delegates that go to the winner of the statewide election. Kasich is the local boy here and did very well in Ohio. Cruz and Rubio were not even close in Ohio and I don’t think they will do a lot better in Indiana. Although there are more evangelicals in Indiana than Ohio. I think Trump will probably win the statewide race and several of the CD’s, but let’s just say Kasich picks up the win, the at large delegates and Trump and Cruz each win 3 CD’s. The Delegate count would be Kasich 39, Trump 9, Cruz 9.
Indiana is the only race on May 3.
Delegate Count After 5/3/2016:
May 10, 2016
Nebraska is a winner take all by state (not CD). Whoever gets the most votes statewide wins the 36 delegates. There are no polls on RCP but a couple of polls that are out there show Trump ahead by 10 – 15. But given Cruz wins in the neighboring states, we will award this one to Cruz. Winner take all and Cruz gets 36.
West Virginia has 31 delegates up for grabs and 3 at large. WV has 3 CD’s and each will have 3 delegates running in each district with their own names and presidential preference. The three winning the most votes in each district will go to the Convention for their candidate. An additional 22 delegates go to the statewide winner and 3 at large are bound to the statewide winner. This is coal country. Kasich does not stand a chance in the Mountain state. In a February poll, Trump was up by 20. Trump wins all 34 delegates.
Delegate Count After 5/10/2016:
May 17, 2016
Oregon has 28 delegates and they are a winner take all state. The voting is done by mail and the ballots must be in by 8PM on May 17. Postmarks do not count. There is not a lot of polling in Oregon and none of it is recent. However, from what data exists, Trump should be the winner and all 28 delegates will go to him.
Delegate Count After 5/17/2016:
May 24, 2016
Washington has 44 delegates and they are allocated proportionally by Congressional District with 3 per district and 14 statewide bonus delegates. Polls are, like all of the later states, sparse. But in several polls Donald Trump is leading. Trump will win Oregon but will most likely not receive 50% or more in many districts. Kasich will be shut out. Trump will win the 14 statewide delegates and 2 out of 3 in each of the 10 districts. Trump +34 delegates and Crux +10.
Delegate Count After 5/24/2016:
June 7, 2016
The final day for Republican primaries and it is a big one with 5 states up for grabs and a total of 303 delegates which is a quarter of the number needed to win. And Trump needs 182 of them to win the nomination outright at this point.
California has a whopping 172 delegates and the delegates are allocated proportionally by Congressional District. And there are 53 districts with 3 delegates each. Each CD is winner take all, so the candidate that receives the most votes gets all 3 delegates. Polling has Trump ahead by an average of 10.5% and most internet polls (of some use) show Trump ahead in every district. I believe Trump has a good chance of winning all 53 districts, but to stay on the conservative side, let’s give Cruz and Kasich 10 CD’s each. Trump wins 33 CD’s, the 10 State Delegates and the 3 leadership delegates. Totals: Trump 112 delegates, Cruz and Kasich 30 each.
Montana has 27 delegates and is a winner take all. Another state with almost no polling but what is out there shows Trump up by double digits. Trump will win all 27.
New Jersey has 51 delegates and is a winner take all state. And with a double digit lead in the polls, Chris Christie stumping for Trump and the fact Trump is a New Yorker, all 51 delegates will go to Trump.
New Mexico has 24 delegates proportionally allocated with a minimum of 15% to receive a share of the delegates. Cruz will probably win the state, but it will be close. Being generous, we will give Cruz 40% and Trump and Kasich 30% each. Cruz 10 delegates, Trump and Kasich 7 each.
South Dakota has 29 delegates and is a winner take all state. No polling at all in RCP but internet polls show Trump ahead. The same polling shows Rubio in second place and Cruz in third. I can’t see Cruz or Kasich taking South Dakota. Trump wins 29 delegates.
Delegate Count After 6/7/2016:
Pennsylvania has 54 delegates to allocate, but as you read above about PA, these delegates are themselves running as delegates without identifying the candidate they will vote for. But one thing is for sure. In the Western part of the state, coal mining is a big thing. Kasich may have won Ohio, but he did not win the Eastern or Southern part of the state. Eastern Ohio borders Pennsylvania and West Virginia. And Eastern PA shares a border with New Jersey. Trump was up by 17 points in a poll taken earlier this month and Rubio was second. I don’t know how many delegates will be for Trump in PA, but it is a safe bet that the majority of the 54 unknown delegates will go to Trump.
It is difficult to see a path for Ted Cruz to win the required majority of delegates in 8 states, let alone 1,237 delegates even if a few states go to Cruz that I have as Trump states. Utah may be one of those where Cruz will bring in all of the delegates and get another of the 8 required states. And if that happens, Cruz would gain 26 delegates with Trump losing half of those I have allocated. A poll that came out yesterday in Utah conducted by a guy that A) Hates Trump and B) Worked for Jeb Bush and is an obvious establishment guy showing Cruz above 50% and Trump under 15%. (Read my analysis here.) But a brand new poll out just this morning (Monday May 21, 2016) shows what I believe is a more accurate measure. Cruz 42, Trump 21, Kasich 13. I believe Kasich will hit the 15% threshold and the votes will be split as I showed above. But if Kasich fails to get the 15%, Trump and Cruz will both get more delegates.
Time will tell but it is quite obvious that Ted Cruz will not make it to 1,237 delegates by any stretch of the numbers. And I don’t see Cruz winning the required 8 states. And my count shows Trump will be over the required minimum delegates by 44 with more delegates from PA that will definitely add to his totals (and buffer any short counts in my analysis).
There will be no “brokered” convention. Trump will win it outright. With delegates to spare.