Category Archives: year

Mis-informed Citizens contribute to the problem

In America we treasure the right for every citizen to express their point of view, even when it encourages & contributes to a problem only becoming worse. This occurs because of a unwillingness or a apathy towards the labor required to learn the facts before expressing their views.  The May 4 edition of the Country Courier provides a glaring example of the misinformation and ignorance that has facilitated the reckless spending to go unabated. Case in point.

The writer stated that   “  if the BOS wanted to do something positive for education  , they might seek more federal and state monies for KW Schools”.

Now maybe this individual has a personal stake in more money for the schools, a family member may be employed there, he himself might work for the schools, but the question asked is the wrong one.  Just where does this guy think the state and federal money comes from ? The proper question is ………how much money does it take to run the schools efficiently while getting the desired result ? . I doubt this person could answer what the school budget was last year, what amount went to debt service,  has the student population changed the last 10 years, what amount of the school budget goes to salary/benefits, or does KW County with just 4 schools  need a Superintendent and an Assistant Superintendent ?  Those 2 positions alone costs in excess of $270,000 a year combined in salary and benefits .  If they are not necessary how do the children in the schools benefit by this waste ?  But heh, I don’t want to tax his brain too much with questions he probably hasn’t even asked himself.

Maybe this man ought to attend some of our meetings where he would learn that beside Puerto Rico, we have Illinois, New Jersey , California, New York State, and a host of others not far behind in financial collapse. Municipal defaults now range from Atlantic City, Detroit, Stockton Calif, Jefferson County Alabama. Maybe he isn’t aware of the 20 trillion in debt at the Fed level ( where he suggests we go for more money) None of this happened overnight, it wasn’t one bad decision but a series of bad decisions over a long period of time that led to the cities/towns/counties going broke.  Anyone making these types of statements is either very bad at math or woefully ignorant.

Opinions like this mans represent the danger mentioned above when we listen to points of view that originate with the uninformed.  Public sector compensation without a single exception is mentioned in every explanation as to what happened in the States & localities now broke. As we stated on one of our sign messages last year the danger to our children is the……. debt, often times being driven by the policies espoused by those who know nothing of which they speak.

Bob Shannon  King William


Article written by: Tom White

PROFILES IN COURAGE —— DOES IT EXIST ON THE K.W BOARD OF SUPERVISORS?

Decades ago citizens decided the way to raise revenue for local gov’t was to tax personal property, land, homes, and various other forms . What seemed to appear equitable has today morphed into a quagmire of selective exemptions and special tax breaks . At every level of gov’t (including local ) the tax code has become the “ dirty currency “ of politicians. Will the King William B.O.S address this in the 2016/17 budget ? Perhaps a reminder of how far out of balance local tax policy has become is a good place to start.

Land Use Tax Exemptions allow for generous reductions in the taxes paid on property that falls into 2 classes, Agricultural and Forestry. Land Use Tax Exemptions reduce revenue the County would otherwise collect by 1 million dollars a year. That shortfall is made up elsewhere, reflected in the K.W real estate tax rate of .94 per hundred, one of the highest in the entire State. 2 other local tax exemptions also add to this tax shifting , the first being an Exemption from the BPOL tax( Business Professional Occupational License ) that Farmers do not pay, the second is the Exemption from the Business/Machinery/Tools Tax, farmers are also exempted from paying this tax, paid by most other forms of business in King William County.

Just what do these 2 tax exemptions cost in lost revenue to King William , shifting even higher taxes to the remaining tax payers ? I would hope that either the Commissioner of Revenue or the Treasurer could answer that question. Is it warranted to quantify the additional cost shifting that occurs with every tax exemption ? If those receiving the tax break know what it’s value is, shouldn’t KW taxpayers know what it is costing them ? Perhaps the Board should institute a “ cost index”, publicly showing a dollar value for every single exemption. We talk about transparency in government, let’s do something about implementing it.

Add Federal Farm Subsidies ( 1995—2012) over 17 million in Federal tax dollars taken from tax payers and going to the Top 20 Farms in King William, subsidies for Crop Insurance ( some .68 out of every $1 ) paid by other tax payers, the Farm Use Vehicle Tag Exemption ( those pesky fees the rest of us pay DMV ) it is fair to say that the tax load at the local level is out of balance, favoring 1 small distinct group at the expense of the remainder of King William Citizens.

Do the Supervisors have the backbone to do something about this ? November’s election was about Taxes and Spending, any attempt to describe it otherwise is fool hardy. Voters threw out 3 incumbents who defended the status quo. Should this Board fail to address what is no longer defensible King William citizens will know the courage wasn’t there to do so . We have already reserved the paid ad space.

Bob Shannon Central Garage

 


Article written by: Tom White

Ted Cruz May Be Mathematically Eliminated On or Before April 26, 2016 – State by State Analysis

Bad news for supporters of Ted Cruz in the 2016 Presidential nominating contest. Cruz may be mathematically eliminated as early as April 19, 2016 and there is a nearly 100% chance he will be eliminated by April 26, 2016. And at that point, Cruz will have zero chance of being the Republican nominee. It is a matter of simple mathematics.

The magic number of delegates remaining that Donald Trump and John Kasich need to win in order to eliminate Cruz as the nominee is 211. (Kasich is already mathematically eliminated.) And keep in mind that a number of the delegates are unbound, meaning they are not required to vote for any particular candidate at the Convention. So the 211 figure includes the unbound delegates and once 211 bound delegates are won by Trump and Kasich, Cruz will be eliminated no matter how the unbound vote. And even if Cruz were to win all of the unbound delegates, which will not happen, he still cannot reach the 1,237 majority to win the nomination.

Let’s take a look at the numbers and the upcoming contests.

It takes a total of 1,237 delegates plus a majority of delegates in at least 8 states to win the nomination going in to the Republican Convention. (More on the 8 states later.)

At this point, after the March 15 Super Tuesday Part 3 where Trump won 5 of the 6 contests, the delegate count stands at 673 for Trump and 411 for Cruz. Since Kasich is already mathematically eliminated, his only role is spoiler, so we will not worry about his numbers for the scope of this article. A caveat here. Missouri has been declared for Trump and the delegate allocation has been awarded by the GOP as 37 for Trump and 15 for Cruz. However, since the totals in Missouri are within the range for a recount, and some issues seem to remain even though 100% of the precincts have reported, most news organizations are awarding Trump 25 delegates and Cruz 5 pending the final outcome. So if Missouri stands as the GOP has called it, Trump actually has 685 delegates and Cruz has 421. So we could be looking at 221 for the Cruz elimination number. But for now, we will stick with the 211 number.

There are 1,026 delegates remaining (including a number of unbound). In order to win, Trump needs 544 of the 1,026 and Cruz needs 815.

The next contests are on Tuesday March 22. They are in Arizona and Utah.

March 22, 2015

Arizona

There are not a lot of polls in Arizona but the two that exist, both taken this month, show Trump with a 12 point and a 14 point lead. In the older polls going back to August, 2015 Trump has held a double digit lead in 5 of the 6 polls, with only 1 poll showing a lead for another candidate, which was Carson. Arizona is a winner take all state and the popular former Governor Jan Brewer has endorsed Donald Trump. Based on the polls, Trump should win all 58 Arizona delegates. Subtract this number from the 211 needed to eliminate Cruz and the magic number for the block is 153.

Utah

Utah is a proportional state with 40 delegates. There are 2 polls, one from January and one from February. These polls show Rubio, Cruz and Trump are all very close, within the margin of error. One poll has Rubio up 2 points and the other has Cruz up 1 point. Kasich was in the low single digits. Carson was in the mix in January and February and is gone. And Rubio was doing well in the state and is also gone. It is hard to say where the votes will go, but as this is a proportional state, we may be looking at a pretty even outcome and Cruz may have a chance of a win here. But it is proportional. Utah awards all 40 delegates if one candidate receives 50% or more. Since none of the candidates polled higher than 24%, it is not likely one candidate will take all of the delegates. The most likely scenario will have the remaining 3 candidates split the delegates. As long as Kasich receives at least 15%, we will split the votes evenly 3 ways with the winner receiving 14 and the other 2 receiving 13 delegates each. Let’s assume Cruz wins Utah and we give him the extra delegate. Which means the magic number to eliminate Cruz is 153 minus the total delegates for Trump and Kasich combined (26) which comes to 127.

Delegate Count After 3/22/2016:

Trump 744

Cruz     425

Needed to eliminate Cruz – 127

 

April 5, 2016

Wisconsin

Wisconsin is the lone state holding a primary on April 5. They have a total of 42 delegates allocated by 8 congressional districts and another 18 goes to the statewide winner. Each COngressional District gets 3 delegates in a winner take all by district. Polls are about the same as Utah so we don’t have a lot of data to go on (1 in January and 1 in February). But Trump was leading in both polls by 6 and 10 points. Rubio was second and Cruz was third in both. Carson was still in and polling around 8. Again, it is hard to say where the Rubio and Carson votes go, but Kasich is not likely to win any congressional districts as of today. But we will award the 18 to Trump as the likely state wide winner and while I think Cruz may win 2 or 3 congressional districts, let’s give him 4 here. So Trump wins 30 delegates and Cruz 12.

Delegate Count After 4/5/2016:

Trump 770

Cruz     437

Needed to eliminate Cruz – 97

 

April 19, 2016

New York

Donald Trump’s home state. A brand new poll out today shows Donald Trump with a commanding 52 point lead. Trump is at 64% with Cruz in second at 12%. Kasich is at 1%. New York is a proportional state with 3 delegates per congressional district. The threshold to award delegates is 20%. Even if we are generous and say Cruz will come in second place with at least 20% of the vote in 5 districts, after allocating the additional 11 delegates awarded to the overall winner, Trump wins 87 delegates and Cruz 5 out of 92. Kasich wins none.

After the March 22 primary there are only 2 contests in the next month. Candidates will have 2 weeks to campaign before the Wisconsin primary and another 2 weeks before New York. I figure Trump will be talking about Cruz “New York Values” comments constantly to New Yorkers during that time.

Delegate Count After 4/19/2016:

Trump 857

Cruz     442

Needed to eliminate Cruz – 10

 

If I have been too generous to Cruz on some of these contests, Cruz may be eliminated at this point. If not, read on.

April 26, 2016

There are 5 contests on April 26 with a total of 172 delegates up for grabs. More or less. Pennsylvania is a strange bird this year. More on this below.

Connecticut

No polling this year for Connecticut but the polls last year showed Trump with a +18 point average. Trump won Massachusetts, Vermont and New Hampshire. Cruz won Maine but has placed 3rd in New Hampshire and 4th in the VT and MA. Kasich has done better in the New England states than Cruz with the exception of Maine. I see no way Cruz wins a single Congressional District here and Kasich could win 1 potentially, probably not. So we will award Trump 4 of the 5 CD’s at 3 delegates each and the 13 statewide that go to the winner. That gives Trump 25 and Kasich 3.

At this point, Cruz is mathematically eliminated from the nomination. And we still have 4 states to go on 4/26.

Delaware

Delaware is a winner take all state with 16 delegates. There are no polls listed on Real Clear Politics but several polls show Trump with a sizable lead and it is unlikely anyone but Trump gets these 16 delegates.

Maryland

Maryland is another winner take all by Congressional District state with 38 delegates. There are 8 CD’s and a 14 delegate bonus for the overall winner. There are only 2 polls this year. One from early January showing Trump up by 17 and one this month showing Trump ahead by 9. Trump will most likely win Maryland and I see kasich and Cruz possibly winning 2 or 3 of the 8 districts, but Trump wins the state. Delegate count Trump +28, Kasich +6, Cruz +3.

Rhode Island

Rhode Island has only 19 delegates and they are proportionally allocated. Trump is ahead by 18% in the only poll this year which shows Rubio 2nd, Kasich 3rd and Cruz 4th. Rubio is gone so it is hard to say where his voters will go, but it really doesn’t matter in this state as delegates are awarded to everyone who gets at least 10% of the vote. And I think that is a safe bet. So each candidate will receive 1 vote per CD of the 3 allocated per CD and there are 2 Congressional Districts. In addition, the extra 13 are allocated proportionally with the fractions going to the winner. So Trump will get 5 at large delegates and Cruz and Kasich will each get 3. Totals – Trump +7, Cruz +6 and Kasich 6.

Pennsylvania

If there were an award for the strangest delegate allocation process, Pennsylvania would be in contention. PA has a total of 71 delegates and 54 are allocated by congressional district, with each of the 18 CD’s receiving 3 delegates. That much is pretty common. Here is where the gallon of strange comes in. The delegates themselves are the ones running. They are undeclared not bound to any candidate. Trump is up by double digits and stands to win the 17 at large delegates bound for the first round to the statewide winner. So the big wild card will be in knowing who to vote for in each CD. And then trying to figure out how they will vote at the Convention. I think the only thing that we can say about PA is that Trump will win the 17 delegates and the other 54 are up in the air.

 

Delegate Count After 4/26/2016:

Trump 950

Cruz     451

Needed to eliminate Cruz – MINUS 70

So at this point, Cruz is no longer mathematically able to arrive at the 1,237 votes necessary to win the nomination and either on 4/19 or without a doubt by 4/26 will have no path to the nomination. And like Kasich, all he can do is try to block Donald Trump from winning the 1,237 delegates. So we may have 2 spoilers and one candidate when all is said and done after the April 26 dust clears.

Below, we will run through the remaining contests to see if Trump can still get to the 1,237. But first, let’s take a look at the Rule called 40b.

Rule 40B

In 2011, the establishment Romney backers wanted to ensure Ron Paul would have no possibility of winning the nomination by leveraging his delegates and doing something, but they weren’t sure what. So they decided that in order to receive votes at the Convention in 2012 you must win the majority of delegates in at least 8 states. And if you did not win a majority of delegates in at least 8 states, your name shall not appear on the ballots at the convention. So eat that Ron Paul! You can’t win no matter what you do and we just took away your leverage.

But the Republicans are not known as the Stupid Party for nothing. At this point, Donald Trump, the one they want to stop the most, already has his 8 states with a majority of delegates. This means that you take the total number of delegates awarded in a state and divide that by 2. In many states, as in Delaware above, nobody won a majority of delegates. Even though I declared Trump the winner, he didn’t reach 50% of the 19 delegates – which is 10 for those using Common Core math. Trump only gets 7. But in the states where Trump took all, this counts as one of the 8 state wins with >50% of the delegates. At this point, Trump has reached this milestone, Cruz has 4 and Kasich just 1.

But there are still 10 states to go. The problem is, 5 of them are proportional and 5 are winner take all. It will be difficult to win >50% in the proportional states, so the Winner Take All states become very key to Cruz and the odds of winning the lottery are far better than Kasich winning a majority of delegates in 7 of the 10 remaining contests (after April 26). Cruz needs only4 to qualify to be on the ballot, but that is a stretch. And we already know Cruz will not arrive at the 1,237 delegates. And there are not a lot of Cruz friendly states remaining.

So the problem for the GOPe becomes that Trump, even if he falls short of the 1,237 delegates, and assuming Cruz does not get 8 state majority wins, is th eonly name that can appear on the ballot at the Convention. No matter how many rounds the voting goes, there can be only one name on the ballot.

Unless they change the rules in the middle of the game to put someone like Romney or Ryan on the ballot. They will not have 8 state wins. And the problem becomes that the candidates who have spent a year or more running for the nomination set their strategy based on the rules. If there were not an 8 state requirement, their strategy may have been very different. Instead of spending time in some states, they would have concentrated more on others. They tried to stack the deck and now it has come back to bite them. Changing the rules this late in the game to nominate a RINO will destroy the Republican Party and we can kiss the House and Senate goodbye. Not to mention the White House. And the Country.

But let’s run out the remaining states to see what we can expect. Of course, momentum sometimes takes over and Trump may do far better than expected, like a snowball rolling down a hill. But we will ignore those dynamics.

May 3, 2016

Indiana

Indiana has 57 delegates. They are allocated winner take all by CD with 9 CD’s. There are also 30 delegates that go to the winner of the statewide election. Kasich is the local boy here and did very well in Ohio. Cruz and Rubio were not even close in Ohio and I don’t think they will do a lot better in Indiana. Although there are more evangelicals in Indiana than Ohio. I think Trump will probably win the statewide race and several of the CD’s, but let’s just say Kasich picks up the win, the at large delegates and Trump and Cruz each win 3 CD’s. The Delegate count would be Kasich 39, Trump 9, Cruz 9.

Indiana is the only race on May 3.

Delegate Count After 5/3/2016:

Trump 959

Cruz     460

 

May 10, 2016

Nebraska

Nebraska is a winner take all by state (not CD). Whoever gets the most votes statewide wins the 36 delegates. There are no polls on RCP but a couple of polls that are out there show Trump ahead by 10 – 15. But given Cruz wins in the neighboring states, we will award this one to Cruz. Winner take all and Cruz gets 36.

West Virginia

West Virginia has 31 delegates up for grabs and 3 at large. WV has 3 CD’s and each will have 3 delegates running in each district with their own names and presidential preference. The three winning the most votes in each district will go to the Convention for their candidate. An additional 22 delegates go to the statewide winner and 3 at large are bound to the statewide winner. This is coal country. Kasich does not stand a chance in the Mountain state. In a February poll, Trump was up by 20. Trump wins all 34 delegates.

Delegate Count After 5/10/2016:

Trump 993

Cruz     496

 

May 17, 2016

Oregon

Oregon has 28 delegates and they are a winner take all state. The voting is done by mail and the ballots must be in by 8PM on May 17. Postmarks do not count. There is not a lot of polling in Oregon and none of it is recent. However, from what data exists, Trump should be the winner and all 28 delegates will go to him.

Delegate Count After 5/17/2016:

Trump 1021

Cruz      496

 

May 24, 2016

Washington

Washington has 44 delegates and they are allocated proportionally by Congressional District with 3 per district and 14 statewide bonus delegates. Polls are, like all of the later states, sparse. But in several polls Donald Trump is leading. Trump will win Oregon but will most likely not receive 50% or more in many districts. Kasich will be shut out. Trump will win the 14 statewide delegates and 2 out of 3 in each of the 10 districts. Trump +34 delegates and Crux +10.

Delegate Count After 5/24/2016:

Trump 1055

Cruz      506

 

June 7, 2016

The final day for Republican primaries and it is a big one with 5 states up for grabs and a total of 303 delegates which is a quarter of the number needed to win. And Trump needs 182 of them to win the nomination outright at this point.

 California

California has a whopping 172 delegates and the delegates are allocated proportionally by Congressional District. And there are 53 districts with 3 delegates each. Each CD is winner take all, so the candidate that receives the most votes gets all 3 delegates. Polling has Trump ahead by an average of 10.5% and most internet polls (of some use) show Trump ahead in every district. I believe Trump has a good chance of winning all 53 districts, but to stay on the conservative side, let’s give Cruz and Kasich 10 CD’s each. Trump wins 33 CD’s, the 10 State Delegates and the 3 leadership delegates. Totals: Trump  112 delegates, Cruz and Kasich 30 each.

Montana

Montana has 27 delegates and is a winner take all. Another state with almost no polling but what is out there shows Trump up by double digits. Trump will win all 27.

New Jersey

New Jersey has 51 delegates and is a winner take all state. And with a double digit lead in the polls, Chris Christie stumping for Trump and the fact Trump is a New Yorker, all 51 delegates will go to Trump.

New Mexico

New Mexico has 24 delegates proportionally allocated with a minimum of 15% to receive a share of the delegates. Cruz will probably win the state, but it will be close. Being generous, we will give Cruz 40% and Trump and Kasich 30% each. Cruz  10 delegates, Trump and Kasich 7 each.

South Dakota

South Dakota has 29 delegates and is a winner take all state. No polling at all in RCP but internet polls show Trump ahead. The same polling shows Rubio in second place and Cruz in third. I can’t see Cruz or Kasich taking South Dakota. Trump wins 29 delegates.

Delegate Count After 6/7/2016:

Trump 1281

Cruz      546

 

Pennsylvania Revisited

Pennsylvania has 54 delegates to allocate, but as you read above about PA, these delegates are themselves running as delegates without identifying the candidate they will vote for. But one thing is for sure. In the Western part of the state, coal mining is a big thing. Kasich may have won Ohio, but he did not win the Eastern or Southern part of the state. Eastern Ohio borders Pennsylvania and West Virginia. And Eastern PA shares a border with New Jersey. Trump was up by 17 points in a poll taken earlier this month and Rubio was second. I don’t know how many delegates will be for Trump in PA, but it is a safe bet that the majority of the 54 unknown delegates will go to Trump.

Conclusion

It is difficult to see a path for Ted Cruz to win the required majority of delegates in 8 states, let alone 1,237 delegates even if a few states go to Cruz that I have as Trump states. Utah may be one of those where Cruz will bring in all of the delegates and get another of the 8 required states. And if that happens, Cruz would gain 26 delegates with Trump losing half of those I have allocated. A poll that came out yesterday in Utah conducted by a guy that A) Hates Trump and B) Worked for Jeb Bush and is an obvious establishment guy showing Cruz above 50% and Trump under 15%. (Read my analysis here.) But a brand new poll out just this morning (Monday May 21, 2016) shows what I believe is a more accurate measure. Cruz 42, Trump 21, Kasich 13. I believe Kasich will hit the 15% threshold and the votes will be split as I showed above. But if Kasich fails to get the 15%, Trump and Cruz will both get more delegates.

Time will tell but it is quite obvious that Ted Cruz will not make it to 1,237 delegates by any stretch of the numbers. And I don’t see Cruz winning the required 8 states. And my count shows Trump will be over the required minimum delegates by 44 with more delegates from PA that will definitely add to his totals (and buffer any short counts in my analysis).

There will be no “brokered” convention. Trump will win it outright. With delegates to spare.


Article written by: Tom White

Polls: Trump +16 in California (172 Delegates) and +12 in Arizona (58 Delegates)

Mathematically, Ted Cruz needs 87% of the remaining delegates to reach the 1,237 needed to become the nominee.

Two new polls show some bad news for Cruz.

In California, Landslide/NSON shows Donald Trump with 38.3% of the vote and Ted Cruz with just 22.4%. And with less than 10% undecided, there will not be a lot of late deciders.

The only other poll taken in California this year showed Trump up by 5% so his lead seems to be building in this state with 172 delegates.

 

In a second new poll taken in Arizona by Merrill Poll, Donald Trump has a 12% lead over second place Ted Cruz. Trump has 31% to Cruz 19%. There are a high number of undecideds in this poll – 30% – so there will be a number of late deciders.

A previous poll taken a little over a week ago showed Trump with a 17% lead, but with fewer undecideds. Both Trump and Cruz were lower in this poll than the Merrill Poll. Perhaps an indication that voters are moving from decided to undecided.

All of these polls were taken prior to Trump’s dominating performance on Tuesday night winning 5 of 6 contests while Cruz won zero.


Article written by: Tom White

Virginia Right! Named to Top 50 Fabulous Blogs for 2015

fab50-winner2Well, it is that time of year again.

Santa has come and gone for the good little boys and girls, Christmas Dinner is now a ghost of Christmas past (and for some present) and Doug Ross has tabulated the results and double checked his list.

And Virginia Right! has been been names one of the Top 50 Fabulous Blogs of 2015 for Best State Focused Reporting.

And we are all blushing now, but somehow we will pull through.

Take a look at the list of winners this year. Click here.

I will also mention that the Watcher of Weasels Council, of which I am a proud member was also names as the Best Blog Ring of 2015.

Thanks to Doug Ross for all his hard work and the enormous amount of tracking he does to compile these awards every year.

And if you have not bookmarked Doug’s website above, do so.


Article written by: Tom White

HERE It Is: Sandy’s Interview with Del. Chris Peace!

Here it is:  As promised.  My written interview with Delegate Chris Peace:

Question: Tell the blog readers your take on the Justice Roush/Judge Alston controversy? Could this thing turn into a constitutional crisis as Steve Emmert suggests in his blog (www.virginia-appeals.com) and what would you propose to prevent it?

Answer: As an attorney and state Delegate who served on the Courts of Justice committee, the legislative failure to elect a judge to the Virginia Supreme Court gives me great concern but not for the reasons you might suspect. The results or lack thereof are a reminder that elections have consequences. This year voters should choose to enhance the Republican Senate Majority to avoid these situations in the future thereby assuring Virginians of a conservative court. Further, voters should endorse the Republican House of Delegates for its principled positions. Not once in my ten years serving the people of our District have I witnessed a Governor chose such a brazeningly political course for our judicial branch. Therefore, the system did not break down last month because the system is flawed.

In brief, the House of Delegates Courts of Justice Committee interviewed its candidate for the unexpected vacancy created over the summer while the legislature was out of session. Our candidate was found qualified; in fact, Judge Alston, who serves on the Virginia Court of Appeals, was determined by the Committee as well as many bar associations to be highly qualified. Unfortunately, in a highly partisan move, Governor McAuliffe used his privilege as the state’s chief executive to select and install an interim judge for the high court. There was no consultation with the legislative branch whose Constitutional responsibility it is to elect Supreme Court judges. Upon determination by this = committee, Judge Alston was endorsed by majority vote of the whole House only to later fail by one vote in the Senate. But for the Senate’s failure to elect a judge to this important position there would be no controversy and Virginia would be the beneficiary of Judge Alston’s proven record. Too often the knee-jerk reaction is to blame the system. I have heard calls for elected judges or some non-political method of selecting judges. Neither makes sense. We do not need more politics in the system. Please remember to vote for your Republican House and Senate member this November.

Question: Should the entire BPOL tax be abolished in Virginia?

Answer: Virginia tax policy should not be a deterrent to economic growth and job creation. Therefore, the BPOL tax should be reformed or repealed.

Many Virginians may not know that to pay the state’s share of costs of the War of 1812 a business license requirement was broadened levying higher rates on more businesses. Unfortunately, Virginia businesses have been paying this higher tax ever since. Now, approximately 39 cities and about half of Virginia’s 95 counties impose this business, professional, and occupational license tax by requiring a license for every person engaged in a licensable activity at a definite place of business.

In today’s economic climate, the state government should endeavor to reduce taxes on businesses. As a state legislator, I have consistently voted against higher taxes including the largest tax increase in Virginia history, more commonly known as House Bill 2313 in 2013. With reform or repeal of BPOL, the state would create a climate for job creation and investment. The fact is that the majority of businesses who pay this tax are small businesses, which are the life blood of our local economies. In order to make Virginia the #1 state for business in the nation, as Delegate, I will advocate for job creating small businesses who want to invest in expansion and jobs. The BPOL tax is past due for reform or repeal.

Since 2006, as your state Delegate, I have consistently voted to reform the BPOL as well as eliminate and reform the onerous local machinery and tools tax. In 2011, I voted for House Bill 1587 which was the first real change in the BPOL tax in 200 years. Now law, the bill offers an option to localities to exempt, refund or rebate BPOL taxes for new businesses for the first two years of their existence. This provision would be well used as incentive for the recruitment and retention of business. Unfortunately most localities chose the status quo instead of providing businesses with needed relief. Also in 2011, I was one of just a small group of legislators who successfully co-patroned House Bill 1437 to allow localities to decide whether to impose the BPOL tax on a business’s gross receipts or its Virginia taxable income. This option would allow small businesses the opportunity to save a great deal of money which could be reinvested in business expansion or jobs.

Moreover, as a former member of the House Finance Committee, I supported former Chairman Purkey’s efforts to repeal the idle machinery and tools tax under the premise that one should not be taxed for machinery and tools not used in the generation of revenue. Again, if localities were to use some of these tools provided them by our legislative reforms, local economic development offices might show better results. In 2012, the Thomas Jefferson Institute for Public Policy outlined a path for reform of BPOL which remains worthy of consideration.

One of my colleagues has been quoted as saying, “I’m not a fan of BPOL, but I know we just can’t stop it because localities rely heavily on the tax revenue. But I would like to . . . wean ourselves off of that, because it is a deterrent to businesses moving and expanding here.” I agree that it remains a deterrent. If reform is the only viable alternative to repeal, then I prefer an option to improve and simplify the BPOL tax making it less of a deterrent for growth and job creation.

Unlike DC lawmakers whose policies have made it harder to create jobs, in Richmond, I along with my colleagues look for solutions to problems so small businesses can find the funding to start and grow. This efficient and effective leadership of which I have been a part is total absent in Washington, D.C. where there is rampant debt, deficits and higher taxes. Alternatively, as a member of the House Appropriations Committee, I have worked to balance budgets and make tough cuts in discretionary spending. In fact, the House has killed 26 separate tax increases worth over $30 B since 2003, and I have strongly opposed expanding Obamacare in Virginia. Last year’s $2.4 B shortfall crisis was solved by not by grabbing the “free” money from Obamacare but by making tough choices to balance the budget. Virginia now spends $1B less in general fund dollars than in last year’s original budget. For all those working families in our District, the legislature also eliminated $11.7 M in fees and $33 M in debt proposed by Governor McAuliffe. Working together against future shortfalls, I supported efforts to pre-pay the 2017 rainy day fund deposit approximating $129.5 million bringing the balance back to $429 million.

.

Question: What is the future of Medicaid expansion of any kind in Virginia?

Answer: Virginia will continue to oppose Obama’s Medicaid expansion.

The 2015 General Assembly adjourned ahead of schedule last year – the first time in 15 years – demonstrating the clear contrast between Richmond and Washington. While Washington is gridlocked with partisanship, Republicans in Richmond are leading and governing and I am proud to be a part of leading this responsible government.

As a member of the budget committee, I worked to pass a conservative, responsible and most importantly balanced state budget that spends $1 billion less in general funds than last year’s originally-adopted budget, rejects Obamacare’s Medicaid expansion and reprioritizes funding for pay raises for state employees, teachers and state troopers. The budget eliminated $33 million in debt proposed by Governor McAuliffe as well as $11.7 million in fees proposed by the Governor.

Most importantly, our budget rejected Governor McAuliffe’s attempt to expand Medicaid under Obamacare and instead offers a targeted healthcare safety net package for the neediest Virginians. Unlike my opponent who favors greatly expanding entitlement programs and an Obama-style single payer model, I believe that the free enterprise system is the most productive supplier of human needs and economic justice, and that all individuals are entitled to equal rights, justice, and opportunities and should assume their responsibilities as citizens in a free society. Now is not the time to entangle Virginia in the expansion of Medicaid as a Federal entitlement program already the fastest growing, most costly program in the state budget. The state legislature with its conservative leadership has demonstrated that fiscal responsibility and budgetary restraint is being exercised by preventing the expansion of Medicaid at this time.

Instead of expanding a failed system like Medicaid, the House provided a targeted investment to strengthen the healthcare safety net. This funding will provide services to about 22,000 seriously mentally-ill patients, including a prescription drug benefit, doubles operational funding for free clinics to over $6 million per year, funds behavioral health community services including three new PACT teams and six new drop-off centers, and increases funding for children’s psychiatry and crisis services. AS we have seen with recent and disturbing events involving Virginians with serious mental illness, these types of strategic investments will provide the best return on investment instead of new and expanded welfare programs.

Question: What should be done about increased tuition at our state colleges and universities in Virginia? Could there be an emphasis on reducing administrative costs and other perks?

Answer: As your state Delegate I am committed to making College more accessible and affordable.

In fact, as a member of the House budget committee, I have introduced amendments to freeze or cap the increases in tuition. I have also work to see our state secondary system invest more in career and technical education because there are those who may prefer entering the workforce earlier, without the college debt, to work in good paying jobs. Just this year, as a member of the House of Delegates I worked to make college more affordable and accessible for Virginia families. Specifically, in the budget, we included funding to open up 2,100 more in-state enrollment slots and transfer slots for Virginia families and $10.1 million more for student financial aid. The House and Senate also passed legislation, with my support, to limit unreasonable student athletic fees. The amount of revenue schools can collect from athletic fees will be capped as a percentage of overall revenue. Athletic fees are one of the largest drivers of higher education costs. This bill seeks to hold those costs down for students and families. Finally, among others, we passed legislation to establish a more affordable, $4,000 per year online degree program for Virginia students and require schools to be more transparent about costs and graduation outcomes. I care deeply about the serious effects large college debts have on the economy and our youth. As your state Delegate I will continue my fight for more affordability and accessibility.

Question: Three important areas you want to seek legislation in the upcoming General Assembly?

Answer: In addition to a balanced budget, opposing new taxes, limiting job killing regulations on business, I look forward to my continued leadership role as Vice Chairman of General laws and the Chairman of the House Appropriations Transportation committees, where I will provide oversight and accountability of our system of infrastructure. As a ranking member of our House Health committee, I look forward to working on health deregulation initiatives, a.k.a. COPN health reform. As Chairman of the Virginia Commission on Youth, I will work to advance juvenile justice and child welfare reforms.

Question: Do you have a choice yet for President in 2016?

Answer: ABC (Anybody but Clinton)!

The Republican field is fortunate to have so many bright and fresh voices to lead our country and restore American excellence. Regardless of the nominee, 2016 will be an all hands on deck operation to defeat the “Obama 3rd Term,” which our nation cannot afford. I believe that many will agree that Governor Romney was right about Benghazi, Russia’s threat to the world, and the restructuring of Detroit’s finances among others. If you are a conservative and care about America, it is my hope that we will work hard to elect our Republican nominee.

For more information: visit my Facebook (/delegatepeace), Twitter (@DelCPeace) and www.chrispeace.com.

My re-election press release may be found here: http://chrispeace.com/2015/04/20/delegate-chris-peace-announces-his-bid-for-re-election-to-virginias-97th-house-district-in-2015/


Article written by: Elwood "Sandy" Sanders

Hanover Residents: Raise Real Estate Taxes or Reinstate Proffers?

Should Hanover County Raise Taxes or Reinstate Proffers
  • 8.33%
  • 91.67%

One of the first acts of Hanover’s all Republican Board of Supervisors nearly 4 years ago was to eliminate proffers for developers. Since then, the same board has approved a number of high density / low income housing in the area despite vocal opposition to this type of growth. And with the per pupil spending around $10,000 to $11,000 (perhaps more for 2015-2016 school year), the citizens of the county have a decision to make. As developers line their pockets building more and more housing units, without proffers to offset the cost of services such as Police and Fire, something has to go unfunded, or we must raise taxes.

Our schools have fallen into disrepair and we have no choice but to spend money to protect our investment in these structures. The HVAC (heating and cooling) systems are old and not working as they should, roofs are leaking (see the video below of Lee Davis High School earlier this year.)

And our cash reserves are have fallen to an unacceptably low level because this money has been spent on other things in order to keep from raising taxes. But those days are fast coming to a close. And taxes, fees, and other ways of taking our money will be increasingly common during the next 4 year term for the new board.

And the questions we need to answer is will we continue to line the pockets of developers and builders at the expense of our schools? Or will we reinstate proffers so that these developers will have to pay for some of the impact of the multitude of new housing they are building?

Looking at the donors to the current Board of Supervisors and Candidates on VPAP if you exclude donations from political sources, all 5 of the members running for re-election received the largest amount in donations from the Real Estate and Construction industry (for all years). And with the easy time most developers have gaining approval for their projects as well as the elimination of proffers, the developers have gotten what they paid for in Hanover.

And the taxpayers are the ones coming up short.

The tax hikes are coming folks. You can’t sell the county government to developers and not expect to pay for such a mistake.

Call your supervisor and demand that they reinstate proffers immediately. And consider voting only for candidates who promise to fight to reinstate proffers and the Cronyism in Hanover County.

 


Article written by: Tom White

NFL Predictions 2015/2016

I’ve been making NFL Predictions for years and have had quite a bit of success prognosticating, but never with Virginia Right. This year, however, I am taking a tact toward pessimism with regard to the AFC. While the NFC has, over the last six years, rebuilt itself into the dominant conference in the NFL, this is the first year where I am picking them to win more game than the AFC. The simple fact is, that Dallas, Philadelphia, Green Bay and Seattle would win any division in the AFC.

ravensThe AFC North, who sent 3 teams to the playoffs and which proved itself the dominant division in the AFC is going to have to take on Seattle this year. Seattle will be at Baltimore and Cincinnati, but will probably win both of those road games. Seattle also lucks out hosting Pittsburgh and Cleveland at home. I suspect Seattle will sweep the division. The fact is, the the AFC North doesn’t match up well against most of the NFC West, which will take a serious toll on our overall record. (I’m a Baltimore Ravens’ Fan: in case you didn’t know that).

Other problems for the AFC is that New England and Denver haven’t gotten any better. Neither team will see the sort of overall success they saw last year. Tennessee, Jacksonville, and Oakland are all much improved. So, we can safely say that there will be more parody in the the AFC records this year.

The NFC is going to match up well against the AFC across the board this year, so while a winning record was good enough to make you eligible for a playoff spot in the AFC last year, 8-8 could be good enough this year.

Now, I know this is Virginia, and there might be some collection of Washington Redskins fans out there. To you sweet, gentle people, I would recommend clicking the red X at the top right-hand side of your screen. You aren’t going to want to see this.

 

New England 10-6

Buffalo 8-8

Miami 7-9

New York: 6-10

 

Pittsburgh 12-4

Baltimore 8-8

Cincinnati 8-8

Cleveland 6-10

 

Indianapolis 13-3

Houston 8-8

Jacksonville 5-11

Tennessee 5-11

 

Denver 10-6

San Diego 8-8

Kansas City 7-9

Oakland 7-9

 

Dallas 11-5

Philadelphia 10-6

New York 8-8

Washington 3-13

 

Green Bay 12-4

Detroit 9-7

Minnesota 8-8

Chicago 6-10

 

Carolina 10-6

Atlanta 9-7

New Orleans 7-9

Tampa Bay 5-11

 

Seattle 14-2

San Fransisco 9-7

Arizona 8-8

St. Louis 8-8

 

Out of the AFC I suspect that we’ll see New England, Pittsburgh, Indianapolis, and Denver in the playoffs. Joined by Buffalo, Baltimore, Cincinnati, Houston, or San Diego. I’m going with Cincinnati and San Diego. (My Ravens will be back next year!)

Out of the NFC I suspect that we’ll see Dallas, Philadelphia, Green Bay, Carolina, Seattle, and San Fransisco. Though, Detroit and Atlanta could surprise people.

AFC Championship: Indianapolis vs. Pittsburgh (I need a shower).

NFC Championship: Seattle vs. Dallas (YUCK!)

Super Bowl: Seattle vs. Indianapolis

World Champion: Seattle Seahawks.

 


Article written by: Steven Brodie Tucker

Charleston Shooter Was on Drug Linked to Violent Outbursts Like Many Other Mass Shootings

Once again we find out that Dylann Root, the Charleston Church shooter was taking SSRI drugs. You would be hard pressed to find a mass shooting in the last 20 years – including Columbine – where the shooters were not on prescription drugs used to treat mental health problems. This does not mean that everyone taking Prozac or other similar drugs will kill people. Far from it. But as the press works to make this a hate crime, they are missing what could be the biggest story of the year.

The drugs we give our young people are one potential cause of these killings. Not racism, not hate. Just abnormal thoughts that end up being acted out. But the pro drug pushing crowd and the companies making billion on these drugs are not happy when someone mentions the obvious. And this is not a sudden and new discovery. The connection between SSRI drugs and mass killings are well documented.

According to InfoWars:

As the website SSRI Stories profusely documents, there are literally hundreds of examples of mass shootings, murders and other violent episodes that have been committed by individuals on psychiatric drugs over the past three decades.

Pharmaceutical giants who produce drugs like Zoloft, Prozac and Paxil spend around $2.4 billion dollars a year on direct-to-consumer television advertising every year. By running negative stories about prescription drugs, networks risk losing tens of millions of dollars in ad revenue, which is undoubtedly one of the primary reasons why the connection is habitually downplayed or ignored entirely.

Note – the link in the story above appeared on Drudge and is apparently down at this time. It may come back later. But here is an archived link to the list of incidents involving these drugs.

So let’s go ahead with the race riots in Charleston. By all means. I’m sure that will help. And I completely understand the media’s reluctance to report the truth since the drug manufacturers pump $2.4 billion a year into advertising these drugs. And murders are good for ratings.

But in the meantime, could some caring researchers get to the bottom of this?


Article written by: Tom White