Donald Trump had the kind of night in New Hampshire he and his supporters dreamed of and his opponents and detractors feared. This time, the polls were right. Or close enough.
Watching the anti-Trump crowd try to diminish the expected Trump victory in the days and hours before the New Hampshire primary was both tedious and entertaining. The talking heads and their guests were in full pre-game spin mode.
“Trump’s ground game is simply not up to the challenge,” they said.
“The polls are likely over polling Trump. His voters won’t show up.”
RINO John Sununu who was Chief of Staff for the Bush Daddy White House for a couple of years had the most laughable statement on the expected Trump victory. He said that if Trump only wins by 12 or fewer points it will be a huge loss for him.
Only in the dream world of the RINO’s can a double digit victory really be a loss. I would assume some of the internal polls pointed to a 12 point or less win for Trump which is why that was Sununu’s mark. And it was fun watching Sununu squirm when Fox News put him back on after the results were in showing Trump with a nearly 20 point margin of victory.
Who Over performed?
Well, despite all the naysayers and the political pundits that were predicting a poor performance by Trump, The Donald actually over performed more than any of the field. He came in 4 points higher than the Real Clear Politics average predicted. Kasich also out preformed the polls with +2.3 and Christie was up 1.7%.
Who Under Performed?
Well, everyone else. Cruz was down .1%, Bush was down .4%, Carson -.5% and Fiorian -.6%. The biggest loser as far as expected performance was Rubio who was down 3.5%.
But Rubio’s night was far worse. There were only a couple of polls that were taken after the debate last Saturday night but after “Christie smoked a Cuban” as one headline reported the smack down, it was widely assumed that Rubio would see a drop in his support. And that he did. Heading in to the primary just prior to the debate Rubio looked to be the establishment friendly candidate that was on the rise. Not quite the “thrill down the leg” the RINO Class gets with “Dauphan” Jebby, but his pro amnesty position with his “Gang” makes their little RINO hearts go all aflutter.
But, alas, it was not to be.
The RINO Class Delimma
It should be abundantly clear to the GOPe that Donald Trump is formidable. All efforts from the RINO’s in concert with their lapdog media (although it is actually hard to tell which dog is in which lap) that Trump is unlike any other Republican they have destroyed. So at this point, all but a few of them that are incapable of putting logic ahead of emotion, will grudgingly admit, at least to themselves, that Trump is in it to stay. And more, that he is the odds on favorite to win.
So what can the RINO’s do? The problem they have is that this is a three way race in ideological terms. Trump is the populist who has tapped into the anger that has been seething with the ruling class Republicans and the left wing politicians in general. There is almost always a choice between several really bad options in the primary and in the general. To Trump supporters, Carson and Fiorina are not viable candidates. Outsiders, yes. But not people who they can see really getting things done. And that means reversing the political correctness, the stupidity of the Ruling Class to always screw America in favor of any other country. A nation where we all get trophies so there are no real winners. Trump reminds us tha we used to be winners, not whiners. And while Cruz pretends to be an outsider, he isn’t. He is a sitting Senator. Same as John McCain, same as Obama, same as Graham and Dole. Only with less experience. And while Trump’s supporters are looking for someone to make America great again, Cruz supporters are looking for a national pastor. Trump supporters already have a spiritual leader. Or they don’t. But they want someone who will fix the illegal problem, fix the negative deals we have with other countries and let our military engage the enemy like we are in it to win it. And Cruz simply has no experience and has proven incapable of doing more than giving speeches that excite the Conservative base who put more stock in the Godliness and Conservatism of a candidate than evaluating candidates on the basis of who can actually get things done that will actually fix America.
So we have the “Make America Great” folks, the “I want a pastor” folks and the RINO’s who want to appease the big money fat cats who demand amnesty and cheap labor in return for their donations.
So we have Donald Trump in the first group, Ted Cruz in the second and Rubio, Kasich, Bush and Christie in the RINO camp. So the lines are clearly drawn. Three ideological groups that are not likely to cross ideological lines until their ideological soulmate exits the race.
The RINO’s are in a tizzy. Rubio is damaged goods at this point. Who knows if he can salvage himself. But the problem is, he is not really a RINO Establishment favorite, just someone who represents the most Conservative position that they could be dragged to kicking and screaming if their other options don’t pan out. They won’t go to Cruz. Ever. A few could possibly go to Trump over Cruz. But mostly they will not.
The only chance the RINO’s have is if 3 of the 4 RINO friendly candidates drop out. They were ready to settle on Rubio before Christie sat on him. And now Kasich comes in a respectable second place in New Hampshire. This was the best Trump could have hoped for. Kasich has no chance outside of New Hampshire (and maybe Ohio) but now he will see an influx of cash, keeping him in the race. Rubio is not likely to drop out yet and Bush has too much ego and money to go gentle into that good night. Christie may be the best option to winnow the RINO herd to stop dividing the votes. But his New Hampshire 7.4% is probably going to be his high water mark. South Carolina, the next stop, is not really into Christie. Or Kasich for that matter. Which opens the door a crack for Rubio to come back a bit and Bush to have an OK showing. Which will serve quite nicely to keep a sickly and limping herd of RINO’s in the race.
At this point, Fiorina and Carson are done. The only question is where will the “outsider” votes go? Fiorina’s supporters are not likely to embrace Cruz or any of the establishment candidates. And I don’t see them moving to Trump. Most will probably just go sit on the bench and wait for November. Carson’s supporters do not like the GOPe RINO’s. And after the dirty trick Cruz played on Carson in Iowa, continuing to call his poll workers and telling them to spread the news Carson was dropping out after they knew that was a false rumor. If Trump takes to Twitter – if and when Carson does drop out – and reminds them of the Iowa dirty trick, the Iowa victory might cost Cruz the dwindling pool of Carson supporters.
Awaiting the Polls
Everyone has concentrated on New Hampshire and the pollsters are no different. National polls have been on hiatus for about a week and the last South Carolina poll was 2 weeks ago. It will be interesting to see what the polls say in the next few days. Trump’s big win should give him a bump, but the two week old polls in South Carolina show him up an average of 16.3% already. I expect Rubio will see a drop and Kasich will see a bump, but Kasich isn’t going to see more than a couple of points added to his 2% average as of today. As it looks now, Kasich will be hammered back down and Bush will move up. And Rubio will need a strong debate performance to recover and a lot rides on that.
Trump is hoping to keep as many of the RINO herd in the race as possible. Going into South Carolina just 9 days from today Trump has the momentum coming off of the big win in New Hampshire. Cruz will spin his third place finish as a victory, but it is not. Trump and Kasich will be the two winners out of this. And Trump already has a strong lead in South Carolina in the aging polls. And he leads in Nevada which comes up on 2/23 just 3 days after the 2/20 SC Primary.
The SCC primary on March 1 will be exciting.
Bring on some polls! While the accuracy was not so good in Iowa, they were a lot better in New Hampshire.
Article written by: Tom White