Category Archives: GOP

CONGRATS to the New GOP National Committeewoman: Cynthia Dunbar!

I had the privilege of interviewing Cynthia Dunbar several months ago and it was fun to discuss this with a hero of mine (for her work on the Texas Board of Ed) and I was pleased to hear that Dunbar won!

She is National Committeewoman!  I’ll certainly keep in touch when I need to share with the GOP leadership!

Congrats to Cynthia!


Article written by: Elwood "Sandy" Sanders

Ted Cruz May Be Mathematically Eliminated On or Before April 26, 2016 – State by State Analysis

Bad news for supporters of Ted Cruz in the 2016 Presidential nominating contest. Cruz may be mathematically eliminated as early as April 19, 2016 and there is a nearly 100% chance he will be eliminated by April 26, 2016. And at that point, Cruz will have zero chance of being the Republican nominee. It is a matter of simple mathematics.

The magic number of delegates remaining that Donald Trump and John Kasich need to win in order to eliminate Cruz as the nominee is 211. (Kasich is already mathematically eliminated.) And keep in mind that a number of the delegates are unbound, meaning they are not required to vote for any particular candidate at the Convention. So the 211 figure includes the unbound delegates and once 211 bound delegates are won by Trump and Kasich, Cruz will be eliminated no matter how the unbound vote. And even if Cruz were to win all of the unbound delegates, which will not happen, he still cannot reach the 1,237 majority to win the nomination.

Let’s take a look at the numbers and the upcoming contests.

It takes a total of 1,237 delegates plus a majority of delegates in at least 8 states to win the nomination going in to the Republican Convention. (More on the 8 states later.)

At this point, after the March 15 Super Tuesday Part 3 where Trump won 5 of the 6 contests, the delegate count stands at 673 for Trump and 411 for Cruz. Since Kasich is already mathematically eliminated, his only role is spoiler, so we will not worry about his numbers for the scope of this article. A caveat here. Missouri has been declared for Trump and the delegate allocation has been awarded by the GOP as 37 for Trump and 15 for Cruz. However, since the totals in Missouri are within the range for a recount, and some issues seem to remain even though 100% of the precincts have reported, most news organizations are awarding Trump 25 delegates and Cruz 5 pending the final outcome. So if Missouri stands as the GOP has called it, Trump actually has 685 delegates and Cruz has 421. So we could be looking at 221 for the Cruz elimination number. But for now, we will stick with the 211 number.

There are 1,026 delegates remaining (including a number of unbound). In order to win, Trump needs 544 of the 1,026 and Cruz needs 815.

The next contests are on Tuesday March 22. They are in Arizona and Utah.

March 22, 2015

Arizona

There are not a lot of polls in Arizona but the two that exist, both taken this month, show Trump with a 12 point and a 14 point lead. In the older polls going back to August, 2015 Trump has held a double digit lead in 5 of the 6 polls, with only 1 poll showing a lead for another candidate, which was Carson. Arizona is a winner take all state and the popular former Governor Jan Brewer has endorsed Donald Trump. Based on the polls, Trump should win all 58 Arizona delegates. Subtract this number from the 211 needed to eliminate Cruz and the magic number for the block is 153.

Utah

Utah is a proportional state with 40 delegates. There are 2 polls, one from January and one from February. These polls show Rubio, Cruz and Trump are all very close, within the margin of error. One poll has Rubio up 2 points and the other has Cruz up 1 point. Kasich was in the low single digits. Carson was in the mix in January and February and is gone. And Rubio was doing well in the state and is also gone. It is hard to say where the votes will go, but as this is a proportional state, we may be looking at a pretty even outcome and Cruz may have a chance of a win here. But it is proportional. Utah awards all 40 delegates if one candidate receives 50% or more. Since none of the candidates polled higher than 24%, it is not likely one candidate will take all of the delegates. The most likely scenario will have the remaining 3 candidates split the delegates. As long as Kasich receives at least 15%, we will split the votes evenly 3 ways with the winner receiving 14 and the other 2 receiving 13 delegates each. Let’s assume Cruz wins Utah and we give him the extra delegate. Which means the magic number to eliminate Cruz is 153 minus the total delegates for Trump and Kasich combined (26) which comes to 127.

Delegate Count After 3/22/2016:

Trump 744

Cruz     425

Needed to eliminate Cruz – 127

 

April 5, 2016

Wisconsin

Wisconsin is the lone state holding a primary on April 5. They have a total of 42 delegates allocated by 8 congressional districts and another 18 goes to the statewide winner. Each COngressional District gets 3 delegates in a winner take all by district. Polls are about the same as Utah so we don’t have a lot of data to go on (1 in January and 1 in February). But Trump was leading in both polls by 6 and 10 points. Rubio was second and Cruz was third in both. Carson was still in and polling around 8. Again, it is hard to say where the Rubio and Carson votes go, but Kasich is not likely to win any congressional districts as of today. But we will award the 18 to Trump as the likely state wide winner and while I think Cruz may win 2 or 3 congressional districts, let’s give him 4 here. So Trump wins 30 delegates and Cruz 12.

Delegate Count After 4/5/2016:

Trump 770

Cruz     437

Needed to eliminate Cruz – 97

 

April 19, 2016

New York

Donald Trump’s home state. A brand new poll out today shows Donald Trump with a commanding 52 point lead. Trump is at 64% with Cruz in second at 12%. Kasich is at 1%. New York is a proportional state with 3 delegates per congressional district. The threshold to award delegates is 20%. Even if we are generous and say Cruz will come in second place with at least 20% of the vote in 5 districts, after allocating the additional 11 delegates awarded to the overall winner, Trump wins 87 delegates and Cruz 5 out of 92. Kasich wins none.

After the March 22 primary there are only 2 contests in the next month. Candidates will have 2 weeks to campaign before the Wisconsin primary and another 2 weeks before New York. I figure Trump will be talking about Cruz “New York Values” comments constantly to New Yorkers during that time.

Delegate Count After 4/19/2016:

Trump 857

Cruz     442

Needed to eliminate Cruz – 10

 

If I have been too generous to Cruz on some of these contests, Cruz may be eliminated at this point. If not, read on.

April 26, 2016

There are 5 contests on April 26 with a total of 172 delegates up for grabs. More or less. Pennsylvania is a strange bird this year. More on this below.

Connecticut

No polling this year for Connecticut but the polls last year showed Trump with a +18 point average. Trump won Massachusetts, Vermont and New Hampshire. Cruz won Maine but has placed 3rd in New Hampshire and 4th in the VT and MA. Kasich has done better in the New England states than Cruz with the exception of Maine. I see no way Cruz wins a single Congressional District here and Kasich could win 1 potentially, probably not. So we will award Trump 4 of the 5 CD’s at 3 delegates each and the 13 statewide that go to the winner. That gives Trump 25 and Kasich 3.

At this point, Cruz is mathematically eliminated from the nomination. And we still have 4 states to go on 4/26.

Delaware

Delaware is a winner take all state with 16 delegates. There are no polls listed on Real Clear Politics but several polls show Trump with a sizable lead and it is unlikely anyone but Trump gets these 16 delegates.

Maryland

Maryland is another winner take all by Congressional District state with 38 delegates. There are 8 CD’s and a 14 delegate bonus for the overall winner. There are only 2 polls this year. One from early January showing Trump up by 17 and one this month showing Trump ahead by 9. Trump will most likely win Maryland and I see kasich and Cruz possibly winning 2 or 3 of the 8 districts, but Trump wins the state. Delegate count Trump +28, Kasich +6, Cruz +3.

Rhode Island

Rhode Island has only 19 delegates and they are proportionally allocated. Trump is ahead by 18% in the only poll this year which shows Rubio 2nd, Kasich 3rd and Cruz 4th. Rubio is gone so it is hard to say where his voters will go, but it really doesn’t matter in this state as delegates are awarded to everyone who gets at least 10% of the vote. And I think that is a safe bet. So each candidate will receive 1 vote per CD of the 3 allocated per CD and there are 2 Congressional Districts. In addition, the extra 13 are allocated proportionally with the fractions going to the winner. So Trump will get 5 at large delegates and Cruz and Kasich will each get 3. Totals – Trump +7, Cruz +6 and Kasich 6.

Pennsylvania

If there were an award for the strangest delegate allocation process, Pennsylvania would be in contention. PA has a total of 71 delegates and 54 are allocated by congressional district, with each of the 18 CD’s receiving 3 delegates. That much is pretty common. Here is where the gallon of strange comes in. The delegates themselves are the ones running. They are undeclared not bound to any candidate. Trump is up by double digits and stands to win the 17 at large delegates bound for the first round to the statewide winner. So the big wild card will be in knowing who to vote for in each CD. And then trying to figure out how they will vote at the Convention. I think the only thing that we can say about PA is that Trump will win the 17 delegates and the other 54 are up in the air.

 

Delegate Count After 4/26/2016:

Trump 950

Cruz     451

Needed to eliminate Cruz – MINUS 70

So at this point, Cruz is no longer mathematically able to arrive at the 1,237 votes necessary to win the nomination and either on 4/19 or without a doubt by 4/26 will have no path to the nomination. And like Kasich, all he can do is try to block Donald Trump from winning the 1,237 delegates. So we may have 2 spoilers and one candidate when all is said and done after the April 26 dust clears.

Below, we will run through the remaining contests to see if Trump can still get to the 1,237. But first, let’s take a look at the Rule called 40b.

Rule 40B

In 2011, the establishment Romney backers wanted to ensure Ron Paul would have no possibility of winning the nomination by leveraging his delegates and doing something, but they weren’t sure what. So they decided that in order to receive votes at the Convention in 2012 you must win the majority of delegates in at least 8 states. And if you did not win a majority of delegates in at least 8 states, your name shall not appear on the ballots at the convention. So eat that Ron Paul! You can’t win no matter what you do and we just took away your leverage.

But the Republicans are not known as the Stupid Party for nothing. At this point, Donald Trump, the one they want to stop the most, already has his 8 states with a majority of delegates. This means that you take the total number of delegates awarded in a state and divide that by 2. In many states, as in Delaware above, nobody won a majority of delegates. Even though I declared Trump the winner, he didn’t reach 50% of the 19 delegates – which is 10 for those using Common Core math. Trump only gets 7. But in the states where Trump took all, this counts as one of the 8 state wins with >50% of the delegates. At this point, Trump has reached this milestone, Cruz has 4 and Kasich just 1.

But there are still 10 states to go. The problem is, 5 of them are proportional and 5 are winner take all. It will be difficult to win >50% in the proportional states, so the Winner Take All states become very key to Cruz and the odds of winning the lottery are far better than Kasich winning a majority of delegates in 7 of the 10 remaining contests (after April 26). Cruz needs only4 to qualify to be on the ballot, but that is a stretch. And we already know Cruz will not arrive at the 1,237 delegates. And there are not a lot of Cruz friendly states remaining.

So the problem for the GOPe becomes that Trump, even if he falls short of the 1,237 delegates, and assuming Cruz does not get 8 state majority wins, is th eonly name that can appear on the ballot at the Convention. No matter how many rounds the voting goes, there can be only one name on the ballot.

Unless they change the rules in the middle of the game to put someone like Romney or Ryan on the ballot. They will not have 8 state wins. And the problem becomes that the candidates who have spent a year or more running for the nomination set their strategy based on the rules. If there were not an 8 state requirement, their strategy may have been very different. Instead of spending time in some states, they would have concentrated more on others. They tried to stack the deck and now it has come back to bite them. Changing the rules this late in the game to nominate a RINO will destroy the Republican Party and we can kiss the House and Senate goodbye. Not to mention the White House. And the Country.

But let’s run out the remaining states to see what we can expect. Of course, momentum sometimes takes over and Trump may do far better than expected, like a snowball rolling down a hill. But we will ignore those dynamics.

May 3, 2016

Indiana

Indiana has 57 delegates. They are allocated winner take all by CD with 9 CD’s. There are also 30 delegates that go to the winner of the statewide election. Kasich is the local boy here and did very well in Ohio. Cruz and Rubio were not even close in Ohio and I don’t think they will do a lot better in Indiana. Although there are more evangelicals in Indiana than Ohio. I think Trump will probably win the statewide race and several of the CD’s, but let’s just say Kasich picks up the win, the at large delegates and Trump and Cruz each win 3 CD’s. The Delegate count would be Kasich 39, Trump 9, Cruz 9.

Indiana is the only race on May 3.

Delegate Count After 5/3/2016:

Trump 959

Cruz     460

 

May 10, 2016

Nebraska

Nebraska is a winner take all by state (not CD). Whoever gets the most votes statewide wins the 36 delegates. There are no polls on RCP but a couple of polls that are out there show Trump ahead by 10 – 15. But given Cruz wins in the neighboring states, we will award this one to Cruz. Winner take all and Cruz gets 36.

West Virginia

West Virginia has 31 delegates up for grabs and 3 at large. WV has 3 CD’s and each will have 3 delegates running in each district with their own names and presidential preference. The three winning the most votes in each district will go to the Convention for their candidate. An additional 22 delegates go to the statewide winner and 3 at large are bound to the statewide winner. This is coal country. Kasich does not stand a chance in the Mountain state. In a February poll, Trump was up by 20. Trump wins all 34 delegates.

Delegate Count After 5/10/2016:

Trump 993

Cruz     496

 

May 17, 2016

Oregon

Oregon has 28 delegates and they are a winner take all state. The voting is done by mail and the ballots must be in by 8PM on May 17. Postmarks do not count. There is not a lot of polling in Oregon and none of it is recent. However, from what data exists, Trump should be the winner and all 28 delegates will go to him.

Delegate Count After 5/17/2016:

Trump 1021

Cruz      496

 

May 24, 2016

Washington

Washington has 44 delegates and they are allocated proportionally by Congressional District with 3 per district and 14 statewide bonus delegates. Polls are, like all of the later states, sparse. But in several polls Donald Trump is leading. Trump will win Oregon but will most likely not receive 50% or more in many districts. Kasich will be shut out. Trump will win the 14 statewide delegates and 2 out of 3 in each of the 10 districts. Trump +34 delegates and Crux +10.

Delegate Count After 5/24/2016:

Trump 1055

Cruz      506

 

June 7, 2016

The final day for Republican primaries and it is a big one with 5 states up for grabs and a total of 303 delegates which is a quarter of the number needed to win. And Trump needs 182 of them to win the nomination outright at this point.

 California

California has a whopping 172 delegates and the delegates are allocated proportionally by Congressional District. And there are 53 districts with 3 delegates each. Each CD is winner take all, so the candidate that receives the most votes gets all 3 delegates. Polling has Trump ahead by an average of 10.5% and most internet polls (of some use) show Trump ahead in every district. I believe Trump has a good chance of winning all 53 districts, but to stay on the conservative side, let’s give Cruz and Kasich 10 CD’s each. Trump wins 33 CD’s, the 10 State Delegates and the 3 leadership delegates. Totals: Trump  112 delegates, Cruz and Kasich 30 each.

Montana

Montana has 27 delegates and is a winner take all. Another state with almost no polling but what is out there shows Trump up by double digits. Trump will win all 27.

New Jersey

New Jersey has 51 delegates and is a winner take all state. And with a double digit lead in the polls, Chris Christie stumping for Trump and the fact Trump is a New Yorker, all 51 delegates will go to Trump.

New Mexico

New Mexico has 24 delegates proportionally allocated with a minimum of 15% to receive a share of the delegates. Cruz will probably win the state, but it will be close. Being generous, we will give Cruz 40% and Trump and Kasich 30% each. Cruz  10 delegates, Trump and Kasich 7 each.

South Dakota

South Dakota has 29 delegates and is a winner take all state. No polling at all in RCP but internet polls show Trump ahead. The same polling shows Rubio in second place and Cruz in third. I can’t see Cruz or Kasich taking South Dakota. Trump wins 29 delegates.

Delegate Count After 6/7/2016:

Trump 1281

Cruz      546

 

Pennsylvania Revisited

Pennsylvania has 54 delegates to allocate, but as you read above about PA, these delegates are themselves running as delegates without identifying the candidate they will vote for. But one thing is for sure. In the Western part of the state, coal mining is a big thing. Kasich may have won Ohio, but he did not win the Eastern or Southern part of the state. Eastern Ohio borders Pennsylvania and West Virginia. And Eastern PA shares a border with New Jersey. Trump was up by 17 points in a poll taken earlier this month and Rubio was second. I don’t know how many delegates will be for Trump in PA, but it is a safe bet that the majority of the 54 unknown delegates will go to Trump.

Conclusion

It is difficult to see a path for Ted Cruz to win the required majority of delegates in 8 states, let alone 1,237 delegates even if a few states go to Cruz that I have as Trump states. Utah may be one of those where Cruz will bring in all of the delegates and get another of the 8 required states. And if that happens, Cruz would gain 26 delegates with Trump losing half of those I have allocated. A poll that came out yesterday in Utah conducted by a guy that A) Hates Trump and B) Worked for Jeb Bush and is an obvious establishment guy showing Cruz above 50% and Trump under 15%. (Read my analysis here.) But a brand new poll out just this morning (Monday May 21, 2016) shows what I believe is a more accurate measure. Cruz 42, Trump 21, Kasich 13. I believe Kasich will hit the 15% threshold and the votes will be split as I showed above. But if Kasich fails to get the 15%, Trump and Cruz will both get more delegates.

Time will tell but it is quite obvious that Ted Cruz will not make it to 1,237 delegates by any stretch of the numbers. And I don’t see Cruz winning the required 8 states. And my count shows Trump will be over the required minimum delegates by 44 with more delegates from PA that will definitely add to his totals (and buffer any short counts in my analysis).

There will be no “brokered” convention. Trump will win it outright. With delegates to spare.


Article written by: Tom White

The Council Has Spoken!! Our Watcher’s Council Results

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The Council has spoken, the votes have been cast, and the results are in for this week’s Watcher’s Council match up.

““Better to die fighting for freedom then be a prisoner all the days of your life.” “ – Bob Marley

“What country before ever existed a century and half without a rebellion? And what country can preserve its liberties if their rulers are not warned from time to time that their people preserve the spirit of resistance? “ – Thomas Jefferson

“We are sorry for the inconvenience, but this is a revolution.” – Subcommandante Marcos

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This week’s winning essay,The Razor’s The Peasants Are Revolting Is his fascinating analysis of exactly what going on politically in America right now and what it means. Here’s a slice:

Watching events unfold this election year is proof that the Chinese saying “May you live in interesting times,” is a curse. 2016 is an extremely interesting time in American politics, and with each passing day I’m convinced that once this election is over things will never be the same thanks to Donald Trump.

Trump’s success has spawned a cottage industry of political navel-gazers trying to figure out how this brash and egotistical real estate developer commandeered the grassroots of a major political party. Dan Balz of the Washington Post writes, “At the core of Donald Trump’s political success this year are the grievances of a sizable and now vocal block of disaffected voters, many of them white and working-class, and a Republican Party that has sought and benefited from their support while giving them almost nothing tangible in return.”

Funny how that happened. Starting in 1994 the GOP faithful elected a Congress who was supposed to implement a “Contract with America” to lower spending. Instead what they elected was a bunch of neophytes who immediately started acting like Democrats feeding from the trough, throwing a bone to the rank and file by attempting to impeach a sitting president over his infidelity to a woman they all hated anyway. In 2000 the GOP grassroots do what they are told and elect an establishment candidate – who then goes on to start a war that his father left unfinished, blowing a hole in the budget almost as wide as any crater in Iraq.

But they do as they are told and re-elect him in 2004. And they do as they are told again in 2008 before revolting in 2010 by electing a bunch of Tea Party firebrands who… sidle up to the trough just like their Contract with America forebears did 16 years previously. The party elites are professionals at co-opting rebels, and the GOP’s did absolutely nothing to improve the lot of the grassroots. Instead their economic prospects continued dwindling as the GOP majority cut deal after deal with the Democrat minority and their liberal president.

The GOP grassroots voted for GOP candidates and found the men and women they elected to Congress were Democrats in all but name. It’s as if the Democrats had controlled Congress as well as the presidency since 2008. The Democrats push to flood labor markets with illegal aliens to boost union membership and their own party’s roster, and the GOP – beholden to the same corporations bankrolling the Democrats needing cheap labor – agree. Meanwhile American citizens watch these illegals take their jobs and drive down the wages of those they don’t.

Now some of the GOP elite are claiming they are going to vote for Hillary instead of Trump, something they had warned Trump against doing when they hoped he would flare-out last Fall. Why this may seem shocking for them it’s no surprise to the Republican Party faithful; they understand the GOP elite has been Democrats all along. At the very least it undermines their past arguments that any Republican is better in the Oval Office than any Democrat.

The GOP peasants are revolting and they have chosen as their leader the only man willing to voice their concerns. For years they have sought a fighter who would take a punch from the Democrats and hit back twice as hard. They finally found him in of all places, Donald Trump. The New York Times reports, “The problem, for figures like Mr. Forbes and Mr. Romney, is that Mr. Trump’s supporters seem profoundly uninterested at the moment with the image, expectations or traditions of the Republican Party, according to interviews with more than three dozen voters, elected officials and operatives. They are, in many cases, hostile to it. “I want to see Trump go up there and do damage to the Republican Party,” said Jeff Walls, 53, of Flowood, Miss.” Perhaps Mr. Romney would have won the election of 2012 had he hit Obama then as hard as he’s hitting Trump now.

More at the link.

In our non-Council category, the winner was Conrad Black with Conrad BlackDon’t underestimate Donald. He will win submitted by Joshuapundit. Conrad Black, who’s writing used to appear in the NRO is apparently no longer welcome there since they started a jihad against Donald Trump. Here, in Canada’s National Post, he writes about the Donald Trump he knows personally and why he thinks that in the end, Trump will wind up in the Oval Office.

Here are this week’s full results. Only Bookworm Room and th eDaley Gator were unable to vote this week, but neither was subject to the usual 2/3 vote penalty for not voting:

Council Winners

Non-Council Winners

See you next week!

Make sure to tune in every Monday for the Watcher’s Forum. and every Tuesday morning, when we reveal the weeks’ nominees for Weasel of the Week!

And remember, every Wednesday, the Council has its weekly contest with the members nominating two posts each, one written by themselves and one written by someone from outside the group for consideration by the whole Council. The votes are cast by the Council, and the results are posted on Friday morning.

It’s a weekly magazine of some of the best stuff written in the blogosphere, and you won’t want to miss it...or any of the other fantabulous Watcher’s Council content.

And don’t forget to like us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter..’cause we’re cool like that, y’know?

See original article here:

The Council Has Spoken!! Our Watcher’s Council Results


Article written by: Tom White

Our Weasel Of The Week Nominations!!

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It’s time once again for the Watcher’s Council’s ‘Weasel Of The Week’ nominations, where we pick our choices to compete for the award of the famed Golden Weasel to a public figure who particularly deserves to be slimed and mocked for his or her dastardly deeds during the week. Every Tuesday morning, tune in for the Weasel of the Week nominations!

Here are this weeks’ nominees….

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Senator Lindsay Graham!!

The Noisy Room : The nod for weasel this week goes to Lindsey ‘Dancing Queen’ Graham for joking that the GOP is batshit crazy and then at the #WPCFDinner: “If you kill Ted Cruz on the floor of the Senate, and the trial is at the Senate, no one will convict you.“ What a vile thing to say. The man should hang his head in shame and slink out of politics permanently for that snipe. Remember, Graham is the acolyte of John McCain who hates Ted Cruz with a passion.

Graham is now predicting Hillary Clinton will be president. Heck, he’s probably rooting for her as he never met a Progressive he didn’t adore.

Graham mocked the rest of the 2016 GOP field going through the remaining candidates. He cited “moderate” Ohio Gov. John Kasich’s recent comments about “women leaving their kitchens,” “nice guy” Dr. Ben Carson having “tried to kill his cousin” and Florida Sen. Marco Rubio changing his positions. “How did I lose to these guys?” Graham asked at one point. Oh, I don’t know… maybe because you are an effeminate incompetent boob?

With Donald Trump, however, Graham shifted to a more serious tone. “I don’t think he understands what makes America great. Our party and our country is going to have to up its game. You’re going to have to ask him harder questions,” Graham urged the reporters in the room. “And I don’t mean to turn a funny thing into a serious thing.” First off, Graham wouldn’t know what would make America great if he was trout smacked with it. And is it just me or does that sound suspiciously like he is grudgingly supporting Donald Trump? I don’t find it funny in the least.

For joking about the murder of a sitting senator and a good man, Lindsey Graham should get a Golden Weasel. In fact, he should be clubbed with it.

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Racist Hate Crime Hoaxsters Ariel Agudio, Alexis Briggs, and Asha Burwell!!

Nice Deb : I’d like to nominate the three African American women who perpetrated a major racial hate-crime hoax at SUNY Albany, to be this week’s Weasels.

On January 30, Ariel Agudio, Alexis Briggs, and Asha Burwell falsely claimed that they were harassed and assaulted by a mob of white people while riding on a CDTA bus back to campus from the bars in Albany.

Their story involved 10-20 white students spewing racial epithets and punching and kicking them while on the bus.

Without confirming whether the allegations were true, SUNY Albany President Robert Jones said he was “deeply concerned, saddened and angry about this incident.”Hundreds of students appeared at a rally that also included members of the National Congress of Black Women and the Albany chapter of Black Lives Matter.

After watching to surveillance videos from the 12 cameras on the bus, listening to their 911 call (especially when they were on hold and didn’t realize they were being recorded) and after talking to multiple witnesses, the police decided to charge the alleged victims with third-degree assault and with falsely reporting an incident.

It turns out that Agudio, Briggs, and Burwell were the ones throwing the punches and yelling racial slurs. The other kids were just trying to stop the assault.

It doesn’t get much weaselier than that.

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Hillary Clinton Enabler Senator Ben Sasse (R-NE)

JoshuaPundit : Ben Sasse is the Republican Senator from Nebraska, one of those people Majority Leader Mitch McConnell begged people to vote for to give the GOP a senate majority and stop President Barack Hussein Obama’s agenda. Of course, the senate majority happened but somehow, this president’s radical agenda kept right on rolling without so much as a speed bump to slow it down.

Today, Senator Sasse posted a little homily on his Facebook page stating that if Donald Trump were to win the Republican nomination, he would not vote for him or support him. Oh, he went into lots of details about how he considers himself a conservative, loves America’s freedom and democracy, isn’t supporting Hillary Clinton,yadda yadda. Let’s cut through this smoke screen and parse what’s actually going on here.

What the senator is saying when you cut to the chase is that if the primary voters are stupid enough (in his opinion) to pick Donald Trump as their candidate, he isn’t going to respect their votes, will throw a tantrum and look for a third party candidate to vote for. Or to put it bluntly, in essence he’s actually throwing his support to Hillary Clinton.

Mitch McConnell is essentially saying the same thing. And there’s a whole movement out there coalescing under the cute little hashtag, #neverTrump. Remember when these same people were insisting that Trump make a ‘loyalty pledge’ that he would support the GOP nominee whomever it was and Trump agreed? These folks are guilty of hypocrisy on steroids. They ought to have at least the basic honesty to change their hashtag to #wildforHillary2016.

This is exactly the kind of contempt shown for the Republican base that led to Trump’s ascendancy in the first place.

I have my reservations about each of the candidates still running, but I agree with Hugh Hewitt that there isn’t one of them whom I wouldn’t support if they got the nomination, because none of them would be worse than putting a corrupt felon like Hillary Clinton in the White House, especially with three Supreme Court Justice appointments at stake. I love my country far more than that.

Obviously Senator Sasse and the #neverTrump crowd would rather see Mrs. Clinton get in if they don’t get their lollypop, and they’ll do their best to ensure she slithers into the Oval Office in two ways – first, by either not voting or supporting a futile last minute candidate if Donald Trump gets the nomination, and second, if he’s denied it by some trickery they concoct at the convention, ensuring that millions of alienated Trump supporters stay home. Not only that, but don’t expect them to line up and vote for any OGOPP (Official GOP Product) the party puts together in the future.

Senator Sasse is the worst kind of weasel…the kind that masks his weasel deeds as ‘principled’ and ‘noble.’ Some of the worst evil in the world is done done when masked by good intentions.

Well, there it is. What a despicable group of Weasels…ANY OF THEM COULD WIN! Check back Thursday to see which Weasel walks off with the statuette of shame!

Make sure to tune in every Monday for the Watcher’s Forum.

And remember, every Wednesday, the Council has its weekly contest with the members nominating two posts each, one written by themselves and one written by someone from outside the group for consideration by the whole Council. The votes are cast by the Council, and the results are posted on Friday morning.

It’s a weekly magazine of some of the best stuff written in the blogosphere, and you won’t want to miss it...or any of the other fantabulous Watcher’s Council content.

And don’t forget to like us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter..’cause we’re cool like that, y’know?

Continued here – 

Our Weasel Of The Week Nominations!!


Article written by: Tom White

A Modest Proposal: The President Could Solve this SCOTUS Thing with One Bold Pick…

The President is determined to make an early Supreme Court selection to replace the late Justice Scalia.  The Senate GOP are ready to fight!  It might be a titanic battle.  But it could be avoided.  How?  Find another Scalia.

It would be hard to replace a jurist like Antonin Scalia (Did I ever tell you I met the justice?  I was invited by another conservative lawyer to go to church with him:  A Latin rite Catholic church in DC.  Come and you’ll meet Pat Buchanan and Bill Buckley’s brother James (a judge and US Senator in his own right); well I did and it took two tries but I met Buchanan and James Buckley and I had just left the second time from services and I saw him – no way you can miss Justice Scalia – so I worked up a bit of courage to say hello to him.  I think he is the only Supreme Court Justice I have ever met.); Scalia is a intellectual and spiritual giant on the Court.  He will be missed.

But the President could scotch the GOP, have an immediate impact on the 2016 election and show people he is reasonable.  Maybe improve his approval numbers.  Do a Sister Souljah moment!

So HOW?

Here’s how:  President Obama should nominate Senator Ted Cruz to be the new Justice.  Yes Rafael Edward Cruz.  The one running for President.  That Ted Cruz!

Cruz has ability and experience (He clerked for Chief Justice Rehnquist,was an associate deputy attorney general, had something like 11 cases at the SCOTUS and was the Texas Solicitor General and a litigator at a large firm!), maybe first Hispanic male on the Court, too!  Cruz is clearly qualified to serve on the Court, and his fellow GOP senators (and the Establishment, too) should be thrilled to be rid of Cruz.  And there is no issue with eligibility to be on the Supreme Court, as opposed to the Presidency!  And the vote Cruz would make would be similar to Scalia’s so it would not hurt the balance on the Court but the new justice would probably not write as well done at least at first.

Surely this is satire, Sanders!  Well, the Washington Post op-ed writers are always ready to tell conservatives and Republicans what to do – so let’s turn the tables on them!

So take that bold move, Mr. President.  Appoint Ted Cruz to be on the Supreme Court.  Sandy will have your back on this one, sir.


Article written by: Elwood "Sandy" Sanders

Our Weasel Of The Week Nominees!!

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It’s time once again for the Watcher’s Council’s ‘Weasel Of The Week’ nominations, where we pick our choices to compete for the award of the famed Golden Weasel to a public figure who particularly deserves to be slimed and mocked for his or her dastardly deeds during the week. Every Tuesday morning, tune in for the Weasel of the Week nominations!

Here are this weeks’ nominees….

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Denver Bronco’s Quarterback Peyton Manning!!

The Razor : My nomination for this week’s weasel is Peyton Manning. The media has always presented Manning as an “awshucks good old boy,” a myth promoted by his successful father. Now it turns out that while a student at University of Tennessee Manning sexually assaulted the head of the sports training department of the university, then subsequently conspired with his father to ruin her career, eventually forcing her out of college athletics. Since being the quarterback of the super bowl victors, a game won completely by the defense and mistakes made by Cam Newton, the media’s anti-Peyton, Manning has been lauded while Newton has been pilloried for the poor performance at a post-game news conference. Yet Manning himself worse sportsmanship on the field when he lost Super Bowl XLIV against the New Orleans Saints, refusing to shake hands with winning QB Drew Brees. But getting a pass on poor sportsmanship for losing a game is one thing; sexually assaulting a woman then ruining her career afterwards is a whole new level of weasel-dom, and for that Peyton Manning gets my weasel of the week nomination. Oh, and for being such a Manning bootlick let’s throw in Papa John CEO John Schnatter while we’re at it.

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BuzzFeed Editor Rachel Zarrow!!

The Noisy Room: My nomination for Weasel of the Week goes to BuzzFeed editor Rachel Zarrell this time around. She posted a couple of tweets rejoicing at the news of the death of Justice Antonin Scalia and then tried to cover it up. She then quickly deleted them. She also retweeted a GQ writer who wrote, “Boy is my Twitter feed not sad.” Her initial tweet consisted of a party popper emoji. Then she followed up with a tweet mocking the statement put out by Sen. Ted Cruz on the news of Scalia’s death.

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Reince Priebus, Head of the Republican National Committee!!

JoshuaPundit : Neutrality? You kidding me? Ted Cruz and Donald Trump are both livid at the RNC’s stacking the audience at the last GOP debate with pro amnesty, representatives of the donor and consultant class whose job was to wildly cheer Marco Rubio and Jeb Bush’s every word, especially on amnesty for illegal migrants. And to boo Cruz and Trump on virtually anything they had to say.

The idea, of course, was to influence voters that ‘real Republicans’ support this year’s ‘product’ and that Trump and Cruz aren’t supported by them.Based on the post debate polls, it failed miserably but it only goes to show how desperate the GOP establishment is to stamp out the insurgents, even if it means losing the election. Trump’s veiled threat to go third party was a reminder to Priebus and his cronies that he has the means to retaliate if this sort of nonsense continues. As he said, the pledge he signed works two ways.

Supporters of either Ted Cruz or Donald Trump whom demonize either candidate should be reminded that to the GOP establishment, both of them need to be destroyed so they can foist on one their own on the electorate. The spectacle of a political party sliming both of its front runners in a presidential election year is unheard of, and a good indication that no matter who the nominee is or how the election turns out, the destiny of the Republican Party is either to go the way of the Whigs or to
kick serpents like Priebus out of the Garden.

Well, there it is. What a despicable group of Weasels…ANY OF THEM COULD WIN! Check back Thursday to see which Weasel walks off with the statuette of shame!

Make sure to tune in every Monday for the Watcher’s Forum.

And remember, every Wednesday, the Council has its weekly contest with the members nominating two posts each, one written by themselves and one written by someone from outside the group for consideration by the whole Council. The votes are cast by the Council, and the results are posted on Friday morning.

It’s a weekly magazine of some of the best stuff written in the blogosphere, and you won’t want to miss it...or any of the other fantabulous Watcher’s Council content.

And don’t forget to like us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter..’cause we’re cool like that, y’know?

More: 

Our Weasel Of The Week Nominees!!


Article written by: Tom White

Trump Doesn’t Have to be Conservative, Humble or Polite to Fix America

DonaldIn most elections I find myself gravitating to the most Conservative candidate. I have supported Conservatives for every level of office. Sometimes my pick wins, sometimes not.

Now I don’t fall for that “most Conservative that can win” claptrap. That is a dog whistle call for a RINO. They believe that chasing after the Democrats to remain “centrist” is the way to win and keep office. And they are now well past the point the entire Democratic Party was a couple of decades ago.

I think all of my Conservative friends today would gladly follow a leader who said “Ask not what your country can do for you…”. JFK, if he were alive today would no doubt be branded a far right Tea Party whack job by the Media and the Democrats. Today’s Democrats say “Ask what we can do for you we are not already doing”. And the RINO’s are reaching across the imperceptible aisle to be just like them. Only less.

But the biggest reason I work to elect Conservatives is that they are less likely to be completely compromised by big money. It is rare when even the most Conservative of politicians does not succumb to the enticing call of the US Chamber of Commerce and Wall Street with the long number of zeros on the checks they dangle in front of their eyes. A candidate that is Conservative will still be compromised, but not to the extent of, say, Eric Cantor. He became quite adroit in the art of illusion. And there are a lot more examples. $19 trillion worth to be exact.

Conservatives bend, lesser men break to the wiles and seduction of the Almighty Dollar, and the strings that come with it.

When I looked at the field of candidates running for President on the GOP side, I immediately cast off all of them but Cruz. Ben Carson never seemed to have what I was looking for and being a Computer and IT guy Carly Fiorina was someone I remember from HP. A definite no.

And I also wrote off Donald Trump. I even think I wrote a snarky blog post about him not being a serious candidate and expected him to flirt with the idea of running for attention.

But an unexpected thing happened in the midst of Trump’s successful flirtation with the prospect of running and announcing he was, indeed, running. Now I do not believe for one second Donald Trump ever expected he would be leading the GOP field by large margins for 9 months running. And I do not think Trump walked into his first rally, or which ever rally it was, with a prepared strategy. But something happened on the stage that day. Something happened to the crowd, but more importantly, something happened to Donald Trump.

He said we would build a wall. And the crowd exploded with applause and cheers. I think that was the defining moment when Trump found the pulse of an America that has been battered and abused by the government. By both parties. He realized that America was mad as hell and was looking for someone to lead them into not taking it anymore.

And that was the beginning of Trump’s strategy that coincided with the decline of Jeb Bush and dashed the hopes of RINO’s everywhere that had counted on the fact that it was theigen-stonewall-jackson-1ar turn to take over the screwing of America. To most people caught in the middle, the Republicans and the Democrats have been playing a tag team match and the American People were the victims.

I imagine that the day Stonewall Jackson earned his nickname was the same type of moment. “There stands General Jackson like a stone wall. Rally behind the Virginians!”

So a man who has perfected the New York persona – loud, narcissistic, pompous, arrogant – and more – stood head and shoulders above the politicians and poked the establishment in the eye. And the nose and eventually the gut. I imagine that as the platform moved from an accidental off the cuff “build the wall” statement to the current list of populist grievances, no one was more surprised at this than Trump. He found the pulse of a large swath of the formerly silent majority and they are angry with where America has gone. They are furious at the loss of freedom and they blame the Republicans who promised to fix it. And failed. Hell, they never even tried.

Trump is, I truly believe, the accidental candidate. The most unlikely front runner. And the man that scares the hell out of Republicans, Democrats and the Media. But is surrounded by masses of adoring fans. And the energy is real. And the anticipation is unlike anything I have ever seen in the political world. I had the opportunity to speak at a Trump rally in Manassas Va a few weeks ago and the crowd was alive. And when Donald Trump finally arrived, Elvis would have been impressed with the reaction.

And when you add in the fact that Donald Trump is self funding, and 100% immune to corrupt influences and slavery of big money, how could anyone who cares about America not support Donald Trump? Is it his New York Persona? His New York Values?

If you were to sit down and make a list of what you want the next President to accomplish, what would you write?

Well, here is my list:

  • Stop nation building and constant wars. These countries are not ready nor are they compatible with Democracy. And America today is no shining example of Democracy anyway.
  • Our military has become a joke under Obama. We are weak and ill prepared.
  • Let’s have a foreign policy built on strength instead of leading from behind.
  • Terrorists belong in Gitmo. Not the US court system.
  • Stop the currency manipulation from China.
  • Treat OPEC like an organized crime mob. An oil cartel is no different than a drug cartel.
  • Secure the freaking border. Build a wall. And enforce the laws already on the books.
  • Repeal Obamacare and replace it with a well thought out plan and limit lawsuits.
  • Fix the out of control spending.
  • But take care of our people and keep the promises of Medicare and Social Security.
  • Reform welfare (again). The reforms from the Clinton Administration are gone and we have massively increased welfare.
  • Climate Change is a hoax. Kill it.
  • Common Core should be scrapped.
  • Stop funding abortionists
  • Leave my guns the hell alone.
  • Let states decide who can marry whom.
  • Stop refugees until we can properly vet them. Better yet, kill ISIS and send them all home.
  • Protect Christianity. Jews and Christians are being killed all over the world by Muslims. That MUST stop.
  • Make Political Correctness politically incorrect.
  • Jobs. We need jobs, jobs and jobs. Bring them back!

FixItThere are more, but this is enough to start on. This is what Trump plans to do. America has told him that we need these things fixed. Donald Trump has a long career of solving problems and making money. Under budget and ahead of schedule.

When Trump said most of these things, many in the GOP and the media said that he was done. He crossed the line. But his poll numbers rose with each line.

And the detractors are screaming from every corner. So, just for the record, I will set things straight.

  • I don’t care if Trump gave money to Hillary, Harry Reid, Pelosi or whoever. He didn’t give them money to help them, he gave to help himself and his business. Purely selfish reasons. He buys politicians. That is good business. NOw I would take issue with his donations if I thought he wanted to help people like Pelosi and Hillary.
  • I don’t care if Trump is not very Conservative. I don’t need him to be conservative, just fix the things on my list. Big money is not going to own him.
  • I don’t care if Trump is not a good Christian. I’m not saying he is not, I wouldn’t make that judgement. But he understands that Christians and Jews are under siege and he plans to put a stop to it. His relationship with God is between him and Him.
  • I don’t care if Trump has New York Values. I don’t even know what that means. Just fix the stuff on my list.
  • I don’t care if Trump is rude, crude and socially unacceptable. Just fix the stuff on my list.
  • I don’t care if you call me or Trump a racist, nativist, xenophobe, homophobe, or jerk. Just fix the stuff on my list.
  • I don’t care if Trump is in favor of eminent domain. He believes the land owners should be well compensated. You can’t build the Keystone Pipeline without it. But it is not something a president would use. Just fix the stuff on my list.

So for all of the people who support some other candidate and can’t figure why us Trump supporters don’t give a rip about all those reasons you keep tossing out expecting us to run away from Trump, I don’t care. We don’t care.

The list. Remember?

And then there is that little issue of the Republicans lying to us again and again and again. The reason Trump, Carson and Fiorina polled so well was their status as outsiders. Even Cruz gets a bit of street cred as an outsider despite his couple of years in the Senate as a Republican.

President is a completely different animal than any other office. We need as many Conservatives as possible in the House and Senate to fend off the liberals. The more the merrier. But the sad truth is, even an A+ Conservative like Dave Brat who has not allowed the Big Money puppeteers to attach their strings to his votes, they are unable to change a lot of things because they are pushed away because they do not play the game. They have a hard time raising money and are ostracized and isolated by their big money controlled colleagues. They may be Republicans, but they face a tough fight every day.

And the intent of this post is not to bash Cruz, but he can expect the same treatment if he were president as Dave Brat and the rest of the Conservatives. A President Cruz would not have to fight the Democrats nearly as hard as he would have to fight the Republicans. He called McConnell a liar on the Senate floor. McConnell is a liar, but that is one bridge Cruz has burned. Obama has found a soulmate in McConnell, Boehner and now Ryan. Cruz will find it hard to accomplish anything at all with the present makeup of Congress.

Trump, on the other hand, has given money to a lot of politicians. Left and Right. And he is a master with the press. If he had to shut down the government to implement my list, the press would trump-hatbe powerless to blame the Republicans or Trump. He simply won’t let that happen.

So you can hate Trump if you want, make fun of his hair, his religion, his New York values or anything else you want. But no one else has promised to work on my list of objectives. No one else has the proven successful track record of Trump. And no one else is able to own the press and his detractors like Donald Trump.

Which is why I say Donald Trump doesn’t have to be Conservative, Humble or Polite to Fix America.

He just has to execute the repairs. Preferably under budget and ahead of schedule.

And I truly believe Donald Trump can and will Make America Great Again!

 


Article written by: Tom White

Forum: Is It Time For A Third Party?



Every week on Monday morning , the Council and our invited guests weigh in at the Watcher’s Forum, short takes on a major issue of the day, the culture, or daily living. This week’s question
: Is It Time For A Third Party?


Fausta’s Blog : Hell, no!

Bookworm Room : It’s time to take over the GOP, but not to divide it so that the Democrats can conquer.

The Glittering Eye :No. Duverger’s Law is the rule-of-thumb in political science that says that two party systems ultimately emerge in plurality rule systems with single member districts while proportional representation systems tend to be multi-party.

In other words the conditions for a third party can’t be favorable without electoral reform.

I think we’re either nearing a Constitutional Convention or an actual rebellion.

The Razor : Only if it replaces the Republican Party.

JoshuaPundit : I see the majority of the American people as being between a rock and a hard place.

On the one hand, the Democrats have truly become what Barack Obama and George Soros wanted to create – an ultra Left, corrupt socialist party utterly opposed to most of the Constitution with suicidal views on national security and illegal migration. And for good measure, a nice side order of fiscal irresponsibility, ultra high taxation, and exacerbated racial unrest.

It is exactly the kind of party a corrupt snake like Mrs. Clinton was born to lead. And the fact that someone with her record and moral character has at least a 50% chance of polluting the Oval Office with her presence is a grim testimony to the state of our politics and our Fourth Estate.

On the other hand, we have the Republican Party, whose leadership long ago ceased to represent anyone except itself, let alone the people whom dutifully voted for it and gave it majorities in congress that were marketed to them as what was needed to stop the dangerous decline of the country. Here, we have a whole infrastructure of politicians and elites who essentially regard the people they supposedly represent as a damned nuisance who should shut up and simply get behind whatever they’ve decided this year’s product with an ‘R’ on it is going to be.

The whole situation resembles nothing so much as a famous Simpson’s cartoon where two space aliens, Kang and Kodos seek to conquer and enslave America by posing as the two presidential candidates:

As far as the GOP goes, it’s gotten so toxic that the Republican establishment is signalling openly that if the peasants are so uppity as to pick Ted Cruz, Donald Trump or anyone else who’s unwilling to go along with their agenda, they’ll try and sandbag them by having a brokered convention to pick one of their own chosen ones. And if that doesn’t work, they’re actually prepared to do whatever they can to throw the election to the Democrats and try and use the old tired formula again in 2020.

So, a third party? Lots of pros and cons.

The way the system is set up, it’s very tough to get on the ballot in all fifty states let alone set up the infrastructure to compete nationally. The obvious historical precedent is that of the Whigs, who imploded over the slavery issue and gave birth to the Republicans. The fledgling Republican Party lost their first election badly,in 1854. They won the next one, in 1860, but it’s not usually remembered that there were five parties competing that year and the GOP squeaked by on a minority vote.

Another con is the obvious one…that splitting the Republican Party almost guarantees that Hillary Clinton will be the next president, with all that entails.

The pros? How about the possibility of no choice? Without an open, vociferous revolt, I don’t see the Republican party being taken away from those whom now hold it. Either Trump or Ted Cruz would have to have such an overwhelming amount of delegates as to make a brokered convention impossible, and there’s no way of forcing people whom despise them and their supporters to work to get a Cruz or a Trump elected. At best, many of them may sit on their hands and do little or nothing and at worse they will simply vote for Mrs. Clinton as more than one of them have suggested.

Is it possible to win the White House without their support? It all depends on how many of them dial out, how fed up the American people are, how successful outright voter fraud is and how the campaign itself goes. These things can hinge on small events. The way I see it, at this point in time Mrs. Clinton has a probable 237 electoral votes going in, including the entire West Coast, Hawaii, New Mexico, Minnesota, Illinois, DC, Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey, New York and all of New England except perhaps New Hampshire. And that assumes that the Democrats don’t also take Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin,Colorado, Nevada, Florida, Virginia or North Carolina. Pennsylvania and either Michigan, North Carolina or Virginia alone give her the winning number of 270. It isn’t an impossible map in 2016, but it’s no picnic. And there’s a distinct possibility it may be our last real election as a Republic.

I’m not trying to be discouraging here. The map can get better depending on events, the GOP elephant might pull together and rouse itself for one more charge with the first real conservative candidate since Ronaldus Maximus (perhaps with a more ‘moderate’ VP as a sop to the Establishment, which is usually how these things get done). And we maybe able to start rebuilding the country again.

But if the GOP implodes because the establishment tries to sabotage a conservative candidate, or because they succeed one way or the other in giving us a Kang or Kodos choice, a third party isn’t a choice. It’s a necessity.

Greg Aydt, Rhymes With Right : I’m starting to think yes — and I say this as someone who has spent the last 35 years as an active Republican and the last 15 as an elected member of my county Republican Executive Committee.

Let’s look at things. The Democrats have moved so far left that they have become Euro-socialists even as the Euro-socialists move to the right because their experiment has been failing for some time. The Republicans are on the verge of being taken over by latter-day Know-Nothings seeking to close the borders, impose religious tests for office and (in some cases) proposing secession — an existential threat that rivals Watwrgatw. So tell me — where is there room for those of us who occupy the center-right that was exemplified by Ronald Reagan? I’m beginning to wonder if there needs to be some new vehicle for the sane center of the United States.

The problem, of course, consists in two realities.

First, the two parties have rigged our nation’s election laws to keep third parties marginalized by limiting ballot access. The major parties have automatic access to the ballot, while everyone else faces onerous signature or financial requirements to do so.

Second, in our system it is virtually impossible for more than two parties to thrive in the long term. In the last 25 presidential elections there have been four major efforts at running a major third party candidate for president. Each of those parties has not only failed to win, but has failed to even field a significant candidate four years later as one or the other major parties shifted enough to absorb most of the insurgent party’s voters.

What I guess I’m saying is that there is little chance of such a party making a go of it in the long term. The best that could be hoped for is that one or the other party might be dragged away from the ideological precipice on which they stand.

GrEaT sAtAn”S gIrLfRiEnD : No and no. The third part meme sounds great perhaps from a purely partisan view (naturally), yet it’s a path to defeat and the inauguration of HRC as the 45th President of the United States.

Laura Rambeau Lee,Right Reason : Unfortunately the time has run out for a third party to be an effective option for the 2016 presidential race. What we have today are essentially two progressive big government parties. The Democrat Party exists to advance the socialist/communist agenda. The Republican Party is not much better and has lost all direction by trying to bring in non-conservatives they believe they need to win a majority. The party may be the friend of big business but they refuse to take a stand for the social issues and traditions of American culture which have made this country great.

After delivering a Republican House majority in 2010 and Senate majority in 2014 one would think the Republicans would acknowledge the hard work and commitment of the conservatives within the party and try to incorporate more of their values and address their issues. Instead we have been taken for granted and used to advance the power of the GOP. In 2012 they ran Mitt Romney against the wishes of most conservatives and failed to defeat President Obama, which should have been easy considering the actions and scandals piling up during his first term. They continue to treat conservatives as a small inconsequential group within the party even though we have been their staunchest supporters.

Since I do not believe a third party is a viable option at this time, we conservatives have to demand the Republican Party accept the candidate we choose; a candidate who can communicate with all Americans and show them where we as a country have gone off course and how he or she will effect true change by restoring American pride, traditions, and culture. Obama promised hope and change but people are realizing the change he promised was not what they envisioned, and many have lost hope. We need someone who can help restore to Americans their spirit of ingenuity, self-determination, freedom, and independence. We need someone who will return government to its rightful place in America; a government that serves the people.

Well, there you have it.

Make sure to tune in every Monday for the Watcher’s Forum. And remember, every Wednesday, the Council has its weekly contest with the members nominating two posts each, one written by themselves and one written by someone from outside the group for consideration by the whole Council. The votes are cast by the Council, and the results are posted on Friday morning.

It’s a weekly magazine of some of the best stuff written in the blogosphere, and you won’t want to miss it.

And don’t forget to like us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter..’cause we’re cool like that, y’know?

Link – 

Forum: Is It Time For A Third Party?


Article written by: Tom White

Early VA State Senate Soundings (Subject to Change Of Course!) on Labor Day!

Here are my thoughts based on stuff I hear and stuff I am told on the likelihood of whether the GOP will hold the state senate:

With (gasp!) 25 contested races our of 40 it will be interesting on election night.  21 is the magic number

Solid D – 2(Locke), 5(Alexander), 9(McEachin), 18(Lucas), 25(Deeds), 30(Ebbin), 32(Howell), 34(Petersen), 35(Saslaw) = total of nine.

Probably D – 6(Lewis), 16(Dance), 31(Favola), 33(Wexton), 36(Surovell), 37(Marsden), 39(Barke) = total of seven for 16

Solid R – 4(McDougle), 14(Cosgrove), 15(Ruff), 22(Garrett), 23(Newman), 24(Hanger), 26(Obenshein), 27(Vogel), 28(Stuart), 38(Chafin), 40(Carrico) = total of eleven

Probably R – 8(DeSteph), 17(Reeves), 20(Stanley) = total of three and that makes 14

16 D  14 R

Let’s start in order:

District 1 – The incumbent D John Miller has a huge money advantage over R Mark Matney but he had not yet sealed the deal with the voters in 2007 or 2011.  (Sandy is helping Matney and that ought to be worth a point or two in this election!)  So this is a likely D district at this point.  17 D 14 R

District 4 – This ought to be a super easy win for Majority Leader Thomas K. Norment and it probably will be over vastly underfunded Hugo Reyes.  But the news has not been uniformly favorable for the incumbent and some tea party and evangelical types might stay home or only vote in local races.  Norment will win but he’ll have to spend some money this time.  17 D 15 R

District 7 – Another easy win ought to be here for Senator Wagner but he has a greatly funded opponent and I am told the D’s see blood in the water here so they are putting money into this race.  If so, this might be a toss up.  Added to that is the alleged involvement of the senator in the infamous “slating” controversy last year.  I’ll wait to see so it is a toss up.  17 D 15 R 1 tossup

District 10 – This ought to be a great race to watch.  Lots of people are trying to tell me Glen Sturtevant has this one fairly safely in the bag but I’m not convinced.  Gecker will have lots of money and if you do not like nasty campaigns, move to a safe seat instead!  I also think the Libertarian Carl Loser might have an impact.  I call it a toss up – 17 D 15 R and 2 tossups

District 11 – Amanda Chase pulled off a major upset in a three way race.  She suddenly had a campaign veteran – E. Wayne Powell.  I know Wayne (I like him too but we’re solidly for Chase here at the blog!) and he’s going to be a formidable campaigner (He ran against Eric Cantor and had clever signs that looked like realty signs for houses with Cantor for Sale and Powell Not for Sale.  The combo was very effective in the message.  Cantor had to run negative ads and there was that bar complaint at a key moment.) and I would not overlook Powell.  Slight advantage for the Rs.  17 D 16 R and two tossups.

District 12 – I am told this is a good GOP district and it should go to the GOP – The party will or have united behind Dr. Dunnavant and she should win easily.  17 D 17 R and two tossups.

District 13 – Senator Dick Black is great but he might be in a dogfight.  I suspect this will be a nasty fight, too.  McCabe has some money for a fight but Black has more and he’s a canny campaigner.  Let’s call this a tossup, too.  17 D  17 R and three tossups.

District 19 – I do not have a good feel for this seat.  David Suetterlein is the legislative aide for the incumbent and it reads like a GOP seat (Floyd and Salem, parts of Bedford County, Roanoke County, Franklin County, Montgomery County and Wythe County) but I am heading a sounding or two about how Michael Lawrence Hamlar is doing well in fundraising and he is slightly ahead of the Republican in money.  I’ll say slight advantage for the Republican.  17 D 18 R and three tossups.

District 21 – John Edwards, the incumbent Democrat seemed to be in serious trouble with two prominent opponents:  Republican Nancy V. Dye and independent Don Caldwell.  I am hearing that this race is leaning toward the incumbent.  18 D 18 R and three tossups.

District 29 – This is the district of retiring Senator Chuck Colgan.  I think the GOP picked the best candidate – Manassas Mayor (and son of a long time Delegate Harry Parrish) Hal Parrish.  he is leading the money race, too.  But the district may be tilted slightly toward the Dems in statewide races but the turnout is lower in senate races.  I say probably R – 18 D 19 R and three tossups.

If you scratched me for a “No Tossup” count – here it is:

I think the Republicans win all three but just barely.  Gecker could win in the 10th and McCabe could win in the 13th.  That would give the GOP solid control of the upper chamber with 22 seats to 18 for the Dems.

I plan to live blog the senate races on election night…

 


Article written by: Elwood "Sandy" Sanders

GOP Email Shows Need for Better Ballot Access in Virginia!

My last post about getting your favorite GOP candidate on the VA ballot came from an email I got (along with millions of others) from the RPV.  Here’s an interesting set of paragraphs from that email:

In the 2012 Republican Presidential Primary, only two candidates out of a field of eight candidates made the ballot in Virginia. The reason was due to an onerous signature requirement that required candidates to submit over 10,000 signatures statewide to get candidates on the ballot. Many voters in Virginia felt disenfranchised by only having two options on the ballot.

Since that time, the Virginia General Assembly lowered the requirement to 5,000 petition signatures to get on the Republican presidential primary ballot in 2016. Make no mistake, this will still require a lot of volunteer hours across the state and with 17 candidates running, the process needs to begin now!

Three points:

First and Second, the restrictive 10,000 signature requirement is onerous and disenfranchising.  Only two candidates (one my favorite!) were on the 2012 Virginia ballot.  And even when the signature requirement is lowered to 5000, it is still such as to “require a lot of volunteer hours across the state” (and some candidates will pay people to collect signatures – that includes Sarvis in 2013 – he reportedly paid $11,000 to get his 10,000 signatures [and he had to get more to ensure he had 10k in valid signers] to get the 7500 or so signers to ensure the 5000!)

Third, the 5000 signature requirement was lowered by our General Assembly.  They can do it for third parties, too.

The House of Delegates has 61 uncontested seats and the Senate has 15 (and this does not count several other where there is only independent or third party opposition) uncontested seats.  This is corrosive to democracy and representative government.

My proposal (please steal it – Dems and GOP, too!) is to have the third party get the signatures – say 15 or 20k and if they get it in time, the party can run whole slates of hopefuls at statewide and HOD and senate levels for two to four years.  The process has to be repeated unless the party gets 4-5% statewide in a statewide election.

Better ballot access is necessary to ensure the promise of the Fifteenth, Nineteenth and Twenty-second Amendments and we need it right away.  I hope to have it introduced in the next VGA session.  Stay tuned.


Article written by: Elwood "Sandy" Sanders